PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Index, August

The recent strength is unlikely to last.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, August

Increase in prices index is nothing to worry about; downshift in core goods inflation has much further to run.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales/Empire State Manufacturing Survey

It's too soon to conclude that consumers' spending growth is reaccelerating.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Services Survey, July

The monthly numbers are noisy, but the steady downward trend, since the Fed started raising rates, is clear.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Manufacturing, July

A plunge in manufacturing employment would not be enough to move the needle on headline payrolls.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, July

Renewed dip in capital spending intentions is disappointing but not definitive.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Services Survey, June

Employment spike at odds with Homebase/NFIB hiring plans; wage gains to slow.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Manufacturing, June

A fresh cycle low, and few signs of any imminent improvement.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: NFIB Survey, May

Still signalling recession, despite stock price bounce.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Services Survey, May

Softening, pointing to slower growth in payrolls and wages.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Still bouncing along the bottom.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

2 June 2023 US Monitor May May Payroll Risk is to the Downside, but Forecast Confidence is Low

• Downside risk for May payrolls, but these data are wild and forecast margins of error are huge.
• Expect a benign hourly wage print; the April spike likely was noise rather than signal.
• The ISM survey shows manufacturing firmly in recession, and signals a deep inventory correction.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2023 US Monitor ADP Set to Report Slower Job Gains, but NFIB Hiring Plans Matter More

• We expect a clear slowing in ADP employment in May, but we care more about NFIB hiring intentions.
• Weak regional surveys and soft China PMIs point to a dip in ISM manufacturing; the sector is in recession.
• Auto sales likely dipped in May; the trend appears to be peaking as rates rocket and credit tightens.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, May

Still consistent with recession, and likely to drop back again before long.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, May

More noise than signal, but still not good.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Services Survey, April

Still trending down, despite the small April increase

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Manufacturing, April

Still depressed, and pointing to lower output and inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey, April

A timely reminder than the regional Fed surveys are noisy, and must be interpreted with caution.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Empire State Manufacturing Survey, April.

No hit from the bank failures, yet.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, March

Ouch, and worse is coming.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.