PM Datanote: FOMC Minutes, May 3

On course for a June pause, just.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: FOMC Announcement

No promises, but this looks like the last hike.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Fed Minutes, March 21/22

Prudent tweaking after SVB, or a failure of imagination?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Apr 2023 US Monitor A Prudent Tweak After SVB, or a Failure of the FOMC's Imagination?

• The FOMC is still more worried about inflation than growth; that view will not be sustained.
• Core CPI rent increases are finally rolling over, but services inflation is still sticky, but not for long.
• Core PPI inflation likely fell again in March as margins compress and global goods inflation eases further. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Announcement

No plan survives first contact with the enemy. Or bust banks

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Minutes, January

Determined to keep hiking, despite recession risk

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Announcement, February 1

Policymakers still expect "ongoing" rate hikes, but will they happen?

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

12 Jan 2023 US Monitor December's Core CPI Data Should Reinforce the Improving Trend

• A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
• Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
• Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Minutes, December

Sticking to their guns, mostly

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Announcement, December 14

Higher inflation and rate forecasts hard to square with the improving data

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. FOMC Minutes, November

The hawk/dove battle lines for the next few meetings are becoming clear.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.