Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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U.S. Employment

21 July 2021 WSJ Editorial Board Article Raises Blood Pressure; Best Avoided

The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

19 July 2021 Faster Job Gains will Support Strong Consumption in H2; Margins to Rise?

The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

13 July 2021 Expect Another Jump in the Core CPI, but the Peak Likely has Passed

We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

6 July 2021 Labor Supply Constrained Until the Fall; the Fed will be Content to Wait

We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

2 July 2021 Upside Risk for June Payrolls, Home base Data Point to 1M Private Jobs

Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

1 July 2021 The Best Way to Read ADP Might be Just to Ignore it

We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

30 June 2021 Upside Risk for the June ADP, but it Likely will Overstate Official Payrolls

We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

29 June 2021 Is Benefit Curtailment Pushing People Back to Work

Emerging evidence from the Homebase employment data suggests that the ending of federally-financed enhanced unemployment benefits in many states has not clearly pushed people back...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

28 June 2021 Q2 Growth won't Hit Our Initial Hopes, but the Recovery is Strong

The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

21 June 2021 What are the Chances of a 1M Payroll Print for June

The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

18 June 2021 Mortgage Demand Appears to have Hit Bottom, Modest Recovery in H2

With half the June data now available, we're more confident now in calling the bottom for mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

14 June 2021 Inflation is Unpredictable; Be Open-Minded

First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

7 June 2021 May Payrolls Constrained Again by Supply; Wages Accelerating, for now

The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, May 2021

In one line: Overstating the official numbers again?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 16:03U.S.

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