Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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U.S. Consumer Prices

22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

19 July 2021 Faster Job Gains will Support Strong Consumption in H2; Margins to Rise?

The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

14 July 2021 Covid CPI Chaos Persists;,Expect Mr. Powell to Stick to

Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, June 2021

In one line: Startling, again, but mostly Covid-driven.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jul 2021 15:49U.S.

13 July 2021 Expect Another Jump in the Core CPI, but the Peak Likely has Passed

We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

12 July 2021 Is the Treasury Market Really Sigalling Slower Growth?

We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Advance Goods Trade, May; Weekly Jobless Claims 6 24 21

In one line: The reopening spike continues; the Fed better be right about "bottlenecks".

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jun 2021 14:45U.S.

23 June 2021 Producer Restraint has Allowed Oil Prices to Surge, it Likely won't Last

Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground? 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

22 June 2021 Delta is Taking Over, Low Vaccination States are Vulnerable

The Covid picture nationally continues to improve, with the seven-day average number of cases now at just 11.1K, down 24% from a week ago and 62% from a month ago. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

18 June 2021 Mortgage Demand Appears to have Hit Bottom, Modest Recovery in H2

With half the June data now available, we're more confident now in calling the bottom for mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

14 June 2021 Inflation is Unpredictable; Be Open-Minded

First, an apology for breaking our two-page rule; we have a lot of ground to cover today. So, to business. Tapering is going to happen over the next few months; the only...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

11 June 2021 Core Inflation has Further to Rise, the Fed Needs Labor Supply to Rebound

Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, May 2021; Weekly Jobless Claims 6 10 2021

In one line: The reopening spike continues; the Fed better be right about "bottlenecks".

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Jun 2021 16:11U.S.

9 June 2021 Upside Risk for the May Core CPI, from the Covid-Sensitive Sectors

The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)3rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

2 June 2021 Will Auto Sales Jump as Businesses Buy Again and Chip Shortages Ease

After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply, 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

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