PM Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, March

Sentiment dragged lower by banking chaos; inflation expectations continue to fall.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, February

Not good enough to stop the Fed hiking next week, provided markets are calm

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/Chicago PMI, February

Consumer confidence points to softer consumption growth; we're lowering our foreacst for ISM manufacturing.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, January

Core services prices still sticky; no one's mind will be changed by this report

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. UoM Consumer Sentiment, February

Consumers unfazed by uptick in gas prices

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/Chicago PMI

Consumer confidence likely will dip again in February; no respite for manufacturing, but it's coming.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment, January

People like cheaper gasoline.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, December

People like cheaper gas and rebounding stock prices

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, December

Consumers' confidence is improving, but consumption growth still set to slow in Q1.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, November

Don't worry about the dip in confidence; consumption still on track for a strong fourth quarter.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

17 Nov 2022 US Monitor The Consumer Refuses to Stick to the Rollover Script; 3%+ in Q4

• Strong retail sales suggest the consumer will drive fourth quarter GDP growth...
• ...Even as the non-auto manufacturing sector sinks into a mild recession.
• Housing construction is falling fast, but it still has a long way to go, even if demand bottoms soon.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, October

Fall in present conditions index consistent with a weaker labor market

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, October

The uptick in sentiment and inflation expectations likely will not be sustained

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, August/Consumer Confidence, September

Don’t believe the home sales jump; confidence recovering

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment, September

Lower gas prices boost confidence and depress inflation expectations

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core Retail Sales Growth has Slowed; Cheaper Gas will Trigger a Rebound

• Core retail sales growth slowed over the summer, lagging the surge in gas prices; expect a Q4 rebound.
• Regional Fed surveys signal plunging margin inflation, though they disagree on growth.
• Consumers’ sentiment likely rebounded strongly this month; people like falling gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, August

No chance now of a 50bp next week, but this is a setback not a reversal

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, August 2022

Falling gas prices cheer consumers, and push down inflation expectations

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Aug 2022 US Monitor Home Prices are Falling, Take no Comfort from the Case-Shiller Data

Ignore the increase in the Case-Shiller existing home price index today; it is out of date...
...Prices are falling as soaring supply meets plunging demand; a new equilibrium is some way off.
Consumers’ confidence is picking up as gas prices fall, but does it tell us anything about spending?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.