Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
New home sales have already dropped by 30% from their peak, but they have not hit bottom yet.
Inventory is rocketing, so prices are likely to come under severe pressure, very soon.
The surge in the Q1 current account deficit reflects the frenzy of inventory-building; it won’t last.
May’s plunge in housing starts overstates the collapse, but not by much, and worse is coming.
The Philly Fed index confirms that supply-chain pressures are easing rapidly.
Vehicle production has returned to the pre-Covid level; further gains will support rising auto sales.
Housing construction is rolling over, and it has a long way to go
The Fed is set to hike by 75bp, just as it becomes clear that inflation pressure is beginning to ease.
More aggressive hikes raise the risk of an unnecessary—though likely brief—recession.
Headline May retail sales will be hit by the auto component, but that’s a supply issue; demand is strong.
Pending home sales likely fell much further in April than forecasters expect.
Whatever happened in April, the floor is not yet in sight; housing-related businesses are going to suffer.
The softening core durable goods orders is not yet alarming, but it needs to be watched closely.
New home sales likely dropped sharply in April, but the monthly data are very noisy and unreliable.
Prices have overshot as developers have exploited low existing home inventory, but they are now at risk.
Capex plans have softened, but spending in the oil sector is accelerating, and has a long way to go.
Don’t be misled by a modest dip in April existing home sales today; bigger declines are coming.
Inventory appears to be rebounding, at last, so the rate of home price increases will start to slow.
The Philly Fed likely dropped sharply this month, but the Ukraine/China hit will not break manufacturing.
The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.
People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.
The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.
Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…
…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.
First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.
The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...
...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.
Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.
The trade deficit is rocketing again as inventory- rebuilding pulls in imports of consumer goods.
Expect a fifth straight drop in pending home sales in March, with more to come.
Core capex orders rose at a decent pace in the first quarter, but the second will be better.
The rapid, steady drop in mortgage applications signals falling new home sales for the foreseeable future.
Consumers’ confidence likely rebounded in April, as the gas price shock faded.
Seasonal quirks imply upside risk for core durable goods orders in March.
The BA.2 Omicron wave is more of a ripple, so far; has the bullet been dodged?
Near-real-time indicators mostly are strong, but housing demand is rolling over.
Homebase data point to a solid increase in April payrolls; perhaps a bit less than in March.
High rent inflation does not preclude a return to 2% core CPI inflation next year…
…Retail margin compression, post-Covid, could easily drive negative inflation in some key components.
Vehicle inflation likely will be below zero by late summer, but margins are vulnerable elsewhere too.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Author
Global Publications Only
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Inflation Growth Labour Market Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Quantitive Easing Trade Investment Housing Inventories Banks Money Credit Inflation Expectations Asset Prices Industry Services Balance of Payments Saving Profits Companies Central Banks
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence