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Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.
The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.
Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.
Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.
Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to maintain—at least—their spending on goods, even as spending on reopening services surges.
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again.
The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.
The astonishing 0.9% leap in the April core CPI won't be replicated in the core PCE deflator.
For now, we're sticking to our view that May payroll growth will be stronger than in April, but we're still awaiting further revisions to the Homebase small business employment numbers before we finalize our forecast.
With Covid continuing to fade away at a rapid, steady pace, New York and New Jersey both dropped restrictions on indoor dining last Wednesday, allowing 100% capacity, provided six feet distancing is maintained between parties.
We were hoping to put off making a forecast for May payrolls for a bit longer, waiting for more data, but interest in the likelihood of a rebound is very high, so it's worth setting out now where the indicators lie.
Every few months, though unfortunately not on a regular schedule, the ISM index diverges from the regional PMI and Fed surveys of manufacturing,
President Biden's $1.8T American Families Plan, together with the $2.3T infrastructure plan, and the $1.9T Covid relief bill, amount to nothing less than attempt to push the United States towards a European-style social democratic model.
The FOMC made no policy changes yesterday and the statement was little different to the March note.
We had planned to lead this Monitor with our take on
the idea that supply constraints are depressing housing market activity, but then we looked at the February personal income report, and changed our mind.
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