Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

September 2021

10 May Don't Fret Over Falling Savings, People have Trillions in Excess Cash

 The falling saving rate has allowed people to spend more as real incomes have declined...

...Usually, that would be unsustainable, but house- holds have trillions of dollars of pandemic savings.

The NFIB index of small business sentiment likely fell again in April, but the details are more important.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 May 2022 Can Solid Wage Gains and Easing Wage Pressure Co-exist

Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.

Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.

If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Mar 2022 Everything Except ADP Points to a Soft March Payroll Report

  • We're sticking to our zero payroll forecast; Homebase and other data contradict ADP.
  • A rebound in February spending on services seems to have been offset by a drop in spending on goods. 
  • Core PCE inflation likely rose, but the February reading could be the peak; Q2 will see a clear downshift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Mar 2022 ADP Likely will Report Solid March Jobs, but Payrolls will be Weaker

  • We expect a solid ADP print today, but it will have no bearing on our forecast for the official jobs number…
  • …The Homebase data point clearly to substantial downside risk to the consensus payroll forecast.
  • Housing activity is set to weaken further as mortgage rates head towards 5%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Mar 2022 8% Headline Inflation is Likely in March, but Consumers Can Cope

  • U.S. headline inflation is likely to hit 8%, but it will go much higher if oil prices keep rising.
  • Consumers' huge cash pile means people don't have to cut back other spending as gas prices surge.
  • The Fed need not deviate from its tightening plans, unless markets collapse.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Mar 2022 February Payrolls Look Solid, but Forecast Margins of Error are Wide

  • The Homebase data suggest February payrolls rose about 600K, but the margin or error is very wide.
  • Wage growth recently has been much too strong for the Fed's comfort, but rising labor supply should help.
  • The third straight drop in the ISM services index was disappointing, but a March rebound is a good bet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Mar 2022 The Post-Omicron Rebound is Strong, but Beware Data Issues

  • The post-Omicron rebound in demand for consumer services is underway, but watch out for base effects.
  • Manufacturing growth appears to be slowing, but the sector continues to expand.
  • The soaring trade deficit and rapid domestic inventory rebuild are two sides of the same coin.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, October 2021

  • In one line: The recovery continues, but the m/m October rebound overstates the trend

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, November 2021

  • In one line: Demand still strong; supply chain pressures peaking?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: NFIB Survey, October 2021

  • In one line: Still Delta-depressed, but capex plans strengthening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: Employment, October 2021

  • In one line: The re-rebound is underway, as Covid cases subside.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: FOMC Statement, November 2021

  • In one line: Tapering begins, but “transitory” inflation - with risks - is still the key story.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: ISM Services, October 2021

  • In one line: Tapering begins, but “transitory” inflation - with risks - is still the key story.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, October 2021

  • In one line: A better shot at being right than in September?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence