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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward... ...But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage...
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red. The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by...
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...
Downside risk for headline June durable goods does not change the strong core picture. Capital spending looks set to rise for some time yet, beginning to reverse the post-2008...
Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate. The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once...
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local...
Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.
We have no doubt that the trend in initial jobless claims will continue to fall over the summer, probably returning to cyclically normal levels in the mid-200K range or even lower.
The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...
Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April
Expect Better, but not Great, Payrolls in May, Supply is Still Constrained
One Huge Core CPI won't Move the Fed, but it Surely has their Attention
April Payrolls Constrained by Lack of Supply, not Demand; Why
Soaring Used Car and Truck Prices will Help Lift Inflation in Q2
Core Inflation won't Surge Until After Covid is Gone, but Watch Rents
Manufacturing is Still on Track, Even if the December ISM Fell
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