PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing, October/JOLTS, September

Manufacturing is hanging in; labor demand is softening, gradually.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, September

Sales nearing a floor, but slump in prices is just beginning

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income September ECI Q3

Increases in wages and core prices are slowing sequentially

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, September

Manufacturing recession looks likely in months ahead

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Oct 2022 US Monitor Foreign Trade Drove Q3 GDP; did the Deficit Fall Again in September?

• Foreign trade likely was the biggest single driver of Q3 GDP growth, mostly due to plunging imports…
• …GDP forecasts could change markedly after the September advance trade and inventory data today.
• Downside risk for September new home sales; the reported August jump is not sustainable

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, September

Disconnect between sales and mortgage demand can't last much longer

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, September

The trade and inventory data will push down Q3 GDP growth forecasts

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, September

Eight straight months of falling sales, and still no floor in sight

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, September

Ignore the uptick in permits; the downturn in housing starts has much further to run

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, September

Manufacturing output is still trending upwards, and it's not just autos

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, September

Solid September control sales puts consumption on good footing for fourth quarter

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. CPI, September

Awful, but PCE will be much less bad

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Oct 2022 US Monitor No Repeat of August's Core CPI Spike?

• The September core CPI likely was much less scary than in August, but the Fed wants a run of good data.
• Wildcards for September are vehicle prices, airline fares, and the components which spiked in August…
• …The range of plausible numbers is wide; it’s impossible to make monthly forecasts with confidence.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. PPI, September

Favorable underlying trends persist, behind the noise

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, September

The headline increase won’t last, but labor market pressure is easing

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, September

Markets don’t like 3.5% unemployment, but is wage growth slowing?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, September

Holding up well; the strength in employment is startling

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, September

Hard to take seriously.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ISM Manufacturing Survey, September

Disappointing, but clear signals of downward pressure on inflation

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, September

Unexpectedly and inexplicably grim; rebound in October?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.