Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

September

11 Feb 2021 Core Inflation won't Surge Until After Covid is Gone, but Watch Rents

Core Inflation won't Surge Until After Covid is Gone, but Watch Rents

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Feb 2021 00:20U.S.

24 Dec 2020 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Stories in the Latest Data

This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

16 Dec 2020 QE Curve Extension is a Decent Bet Today, Increased Purchases in '21

In the absence of hints from senior Fed officials that a major change to the QE program is imminent, we would be surprised today if the Fed increases the pace of purchases from...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Dec 2020 22:20U.S.

4 Dec 2020 Downside Risk for November Payrolls, with Worse to Come

The risk to today's November payroll numbers is to the downside, relative to the 475K consensus.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

24 Nov 2020 Home Prices are Rocketing, but the Rapid Gains Likely won't Persist

The surge in U.S. median home prices has morphed from merely startling to truly remarkable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

20 Nov 2020 Covid Case Growth is Slowing, but Thanksgiving will Trigger a Spike

The rate of increase of confirmed new U.S. Covid cases per day is slowing, quite quickly.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

18 Nov 2020 The Restaurant Recovery Stalled in October, Reversal in November

After five straight months of gains, during which the food service component of retail sales recovered 73% of the ground lost in March and April, during the initial Covid...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

12 Nov 2020 The 2021 Inflation Outlook is Very Uncertain

We remain resolutely open-minded about the medium-term inflation outlook, on the straightforward grounds that the post-Covid economy will bear little resemblance to any previous...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Nov 2020 00:10U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, September and Employment Costs, Q3 2020

In one line: Households in aggregate are cash rich, but spending is Covid-constrained.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 15:00U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, September 2020

In one line: The housing rebound is stalling, for now at least.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Oct 2020 16:21U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance international trade in goods, September 2020

In one line: Exports made up some ground in September, but remain depressed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Oct 2020 15:57U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, September 2020

In one line: Another solid month for capex, but headline orders pushed up by noise in the aircraft sector.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 14:06U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, September 2020

In one line: Sales have peaked for now, but don't expect a sustained decline.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 15:00U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Oct 2020 01:50U.S.

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