Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Saving Housing Supply

28 July 2021 Expect a Light Touch from the Fed Today, and Some Delta Nerves

Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

21 July 2021 WSJ Editorial Board Article Raises Blood Pressure; Best Avoided

The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, June 2021

In one line: The drop in permits is more important than the jump in starts.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Jul 2021 15:09U.S.

20 July 2021 No Signs in Homebase Data of Accelerating Payrolls in July

The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period--that is, the week, two weeks, or month--which included Monday, July 12, counts as...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

19 July 2021 Faster Job Gains will Support Strong Consumption in H2; Margins to Rise?

The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

28 June 2021 Q2 Growth won't Hit Our Initial Hopes, but the Recovery is Strong

The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

US 25 June 2021 Savings Behavior Matters Hugely for the Recovery, but it's Unpredictable

Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

18 June 2021 Mortgage Demand Appears to have Hit Bottom, Modest Recovery in H2

With half the June data now available, we're more confident now in calling the bottom for mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

11 June 2021 Core Inflation has Further to Rise, the Fed Needs Labor Supply to Rebound

Most of the action in the May CPI was in the Covid- sensitive components, again. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

9 June 2021 Upside Risk for the May Core CPI, from the Covid-Sensitive Sectors

The May CPI is released tomorrow, but interest in the numbers is so high that we want to set out our forecast today, ahead of the rush.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

8 June 2021 Fundamentals, not Surveys, will Drive the Fed, but the Surveys are Startling

In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th May 2021 00:20U.S.

26 May 2021 Markets and the Fed will React Differently if May Payrolls Rebound

Markets and the Fed will React Differently if May Payrolls Rebound

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th May 2021 00:20U.S.

25 May 2021 Surging Restaurant Demand is Set to Lift May and June Retail Sales

Surging Restaurant Demand is Set to Lift May and June Retail Sales

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th May 2021 00:30U.S.

21 May 2021 Expect Better, but not Great, Payrolls in May, Supply is Still Constrained

Expect Better, but not Great, Payrolls in May, Supply is Still Constrained

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st May 2021 00:30U.S.

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