Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Global Weekly Monitor Quantitive Easing Housing Inflation Housing Supply

16 May 2022 Mean-Reversion in Margins will Drive Inflation Down, Perhaps Quickly

  • The surge in inflation is largely a margin story; costs have jumped too, but margins are the bigger factor.
  • Absent structural change in markets, margins will mean-revert, pulling inflation down, but how quickly?
  • The Empire State survey looks primed for a correction after the inexplicably strong April reading.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Apr 2022 Will High Rent Inflation be Offset by Retail Margin Compression?

High rent inflation does not preclude a return to 2% core CPI inflation next year…

…Retail margin compression, post-Covid, could easily drive negative inflation in some key components.

Vehicle inflation likely will be below zero by late summer, but margins are vulnerable elsewhere too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Mar 2022 How to Think About U.S. Recession Risk: It's all About the Process

  • Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
  • ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
  • The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Mar 2022. The Housing Market is Starting to Roll Over; Soaring Rates are Hurting

  • Home sales have much further to fall as the surge in rates bites; payments are up 27% since September.
  • Falling sales will hit economic growth, at the margin, but rising supply will dampen price gains...
  • ...And slowing price increases eventually will feed into slowing rent inflation, but likely not until next year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence