Pantheon Macroeconomics
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A significant recovery seems unlikely in the near term.
Consistent with another quarter of brisk growth in consumption, but slower growth lies ahead
Expect a small rise in H2 sales, but the weakening labor market will constrain activity.
The PMI is probably a poor guide to the national picture.
Real consumption likely grew at a near-2% rate in Q2, down from 2023’s rapid pace.
New mortgage rates still far too high for transactions to recover
The drop in sales is probably noise, but the underlying trend is weak.
Sales likely to stagnate for the next few months, at best.
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