- In one line: Strong core orders; claims depressed by seasonal quirk; exports soaring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: The re-rebound continues, and low inventory means prices are still soaring.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Permits are the key number, and they are headed back up.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: The recovery continues, but the m/m October rebound overstates the trend
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Still Delta-depressed, but capex plans strengthening.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: The re-rebound is underway, as Covid cases subside.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: A better shot at being right than in September?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Struggling against supply-chain headwinds
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Core capex orders still rising strongly; trade hit by the lagged effect of lower summer oil prices
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: The fading of Delta fears is outweighing the hit from higher energy prices.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Claims have further to fall; Philly details stronger than the headline.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Falling Covid cases offset by higher energy prices?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- In one line: Delta is boosting sales of goods; what’s happening to services?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
- The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
- Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
- September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
- Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
- The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
- Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
- China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
- New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.
The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.
People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
