- A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
- Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
- Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Homebase small business employment data point to a 250K increase in October payrolls...
...But whatever happened in October, job growth will slow markedly over the next few months.
A fourth straight modest hourly earnings number would strongly suggest the trend is slowing.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Q4 consumption set for 3%-plus, but trouble brewing ahead
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Net trade to be a drag on GDP growth in Q4
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
ADP’s employment measure is unreliable; we will be sticking to our 250K payroll forecast.
Job openings are trending downwards but not collapsing; wage growth is slowing more quickly.
The October trade deficit likely fell slightly, but the big correction in imports is over.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Strong looking October new home sales and durable goods orders data are misleading
Home sales and prices have further to fall and the trend in core capex orders has slowed markedly.
The upturn in jobless claims is a better guide to what’s really happening; the economy is softening.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Jump in sales impossible to square with the collapse in mortgage demand; current prices can't be sustained
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Resilient core capital goods orders unlikely to last
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
- Forecasts of GDP growth over 4% in Q4 might be right, but at this point they are premature.
- Existing home sales likely fell again in October but can’t drop much further; prices can.
- Used vehicle auction prices nudged up in early November; we hope it’s noise, not signal.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The bulk of the drop is over, but recovery is a long way off
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Manufacturing perilously close to recession
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
Upward revisions and solid October signal a much stronger trend in core sales
Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.
- November private payrolls look to have risen by about 250K, little changed from October.
- Surging auto sales and higher gas prices likely boosted October retail sales.
- The Great Margin Recompression is underway, but it has a long, long way to go.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Great Margin Recompression is underway; it has a long way to run
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
The Great Margin Recompression is underway; it has a long way to run
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Much of the sharp slowing in the October core CPI looks sustainable, including rents.
- The Fed is still most likely to hike by 50bp in December, but 25bp is possible…
- …All eyes on the November employment and CPI reports, both due before the December FOMC.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
Startlingly goods core CPI; rent fever appears to be breaking
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Falling used auto prices and a reversal in health insurance prices should constrain the October core CPI.
- We expect a 0.5% core increase, with a bit of downside risk, but rent is still a threat…
- …And the disparate components of the core-core are unpredictable; they have overshot in recent months.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
- Control of the Senate might not be decided until December; it’s unlikely to be known tonight.
- The drop in household employment in October was noise, not a sign of plunging payrolls ahead.
- Small business sentiment under renewed pressure from falling stock prices and higher rates.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.
