Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

October

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income/New Home Sales, October

  • In one line: Spending rebounding; inflation yet to peak; dip in home sales is temporary.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Orders/Claims/Trade, October

  • In one line: Strong core orders; claims depressed by seasonal quirk; exports soaring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S.Existing Home Sales, October

  • In one line: The re-rebound continues, and low inventory means prices are still soaring.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Housing Starts, October

  • In one line: Permits are the key number, and they are headed back up. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, October 2021

  • In one line: The recovery continues, but the m/m October rebound overstates the trend

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: NFIB Survey, October 2021

  • In one line: Still Delta-depressed, but capex plans strengthening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: Employment, October 2021

  • In one line: The re-rebound is underway, as Covid cases subside.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: ADP Employment, October 2021

  • In one line: A better shot at being right than in September?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. GDP, Q3 advance & Weekly Jobless Claims, October 2021

  • In one line: Core capex orders still rising strongly; trade hit by the lagged effect of lower summer oil prices

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, October 2021

  • In one line: The fading of Delta fears is outweighing the hit from higher energy prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 10 21 21; Philly Fed, October 2021

  • In one line: Claims have further to fall; Philly details stronger than the headline.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Sept 2021 Delta Hit August Jobs Hard, and the Rebound will Take Time

  • Delta dampened August job growth; September will be weak too, and October is at risk.
  • The tapering announcement will be delayed; December now looks the best bet, but it could be later.
  • Fed hawks will continue to emphasize faster wage growth; Chair Powell is focussed on unit labor costs

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Sept 2021 Payroll Gains Likely Losing Momentum, Thanks to Delta

  • A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
  • September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
  • Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2021 The Delta Wave is Making Itself Felt in Labor Market Data, More to Come

  • Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
  • The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
  • Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2021 ADP Likely to Report a Solid Gain in August Private Payrolls

  • We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
  • China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
  • New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Aug 2021 While we were Out... the Macro Data Improved, but Delta Raged

The reopening spike in the core CPI has peaked, though food prices will keep rising strongly for a while.

The Delta variant continues to drive up Covid cases, but the rate of increase is slowing steadily.

People have responded to the surge by travelling less; airlines, restaurants, hotels all feeling the pain.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence