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Stuck in a rut, with few signs of an improvement ahead.
Inflation? What inflation?
Signalling softer spending on services after the summer blowout.
Noisy but signalling stable manufacturing output; inflation pressures still fading
Still signalling a sustained downshift in core services inflation ex-rents.
Most of the hit from higher rates is still to come.
Rebounding mortgage rates are making homebuilders nervous
Wild monthly swings hide flat-to-slightly upwards trend
Rise in selling price index is msotly due to higher commodity prices; the downward trend remains intact.
Trend in claims is flattening; Philly Fed jump is likely noise.
It's too soon to conclude that consumers' spending growth is reaccelerating.
The selling prices index signals lower core services inflation ex-rents.
The monthly numbers are noisy, but the steady downward trend, since the Fed started raising rates, is clear.
Renewed dip in capital spending intentions is disappointing but not definitive.
Employment spike at odds with Homebase/NFIB hiring plans; wage gains to slow.
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence