Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

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Monetary Policy

24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties

24 Feb 2021 No Crack in the Fed Facade as Powell Emphasizes Risk and Uncertainties

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Feb 2021 19:20U.S.

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

23 February 2021 Chair Powell won't Give an Inch Today, too Soon for Taper Talk

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Feb 2021 08:32U.S.

25 Jan 2021 Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Could a Margin Spike Translate into Sustained Inflation? Watch Wages

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

8 Jan 2021 December Payrolls are Wild, but Risk to Consensus is Mostly to the Upside

December Payrolls are Wild, but Risk to Consensus is Mostly to the Upside

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

7 Jan 2021 The Biden Administration is Still Constrained, Despite Georgia Wins

Everything has changed in Washington after the Democrats won the Georgia Senate runoff elections, except the need to find 60 votes for fiscal measures which can't be passed...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Jan 2021 19:20U.S.

17 Dec 2020 Opportunity Missed as the FOMC Leaves QE Unchanged

The Fed disappointed markets yesterday, by choosing not to increase the weighted average maturity--WAM--of its Treasury purchases.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Dec 2020 17:20U.S.

15 Dec 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but not in a Straight Line

The industrial economy continues to recover, buoyed by a combination of strong domestic demand for goods, both consumer and capital, including anything housing-related, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Dec 2020 19:20U.S.

23 Nov 2020 Increased QE More Likely After the Treasury Kills Fed Lending Programs

The unilateral decision of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to allow a slew of Fed emergency lending programs to close to new borrowers on December 31, despite Fed objections, increases...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

16 Nov 2020 Expect Rolling Restrictions and Lockdowns, Covid is Out of Control

The story of the next few weeks will be a gradual and uneven--but unambiguous--tightening of anti-Covid restrictions across the country.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

13 Nov 2020 Banks Threatened to Turn the Screws on Borrowers, but Haven't

The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Surveys in April and July were deeply alarming, signaling that banks were aggressively tightening lending standards for firms of all sizes.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

12 Nov 2020 The 2021 Inflation Outlook is Very Uncertain

We remain resolutely open-minded about the medium-term inflation outlook, on the straightforward grounds that the post-Covid economy will bear little resemblance to any previous...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

9 Nov 2020 October Payrolls were Good, but Nothing Like Good Enough

October payrolls surprised us to the upside, prompting a wave of chatter from the commentariat to the effect that the labor market is healing. Well, it was healing, in the week...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Nov 2020 19:20U.S.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)5th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

5 Nov 2020 Less Fiscal Push, More Monetary Easing, Stocks Up, Yields, USD Down

As we reach our deadline at 4pm Eastern, definitive results are not yet available for Nevada, Georgia or Pennsylvania, any one of which would push Joe Biden over the 270 Electoral...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)4th Nov 2020 19:10U.S.

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