PM Datanote: JOLTS, May

Loosening, slowly

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: Personal Income and Spending, May

Spending momentum has slowed markedly; best core services PCE ex-rent since July

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Pending Home Sales, May

So much for the recovery in housing...

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Advance Goods Trade, May

Net foreign trade will be a drag on Q2 GDP growth.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Durable Goods Orders, May

The gap between the surveys and the hard data is growing.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Existing Home Sales, May

Stuck at low levels for the foreseeable future.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Housing Starts, May

The rebound in residential construction activity will soon run out of road.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Industrial Production, May

Manufacturing output is at odds with the survey data; auto production still looks unsustainable.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Retail Sales, May

Upside surprise in the headline offset by downward revisions to March; Q2 consumption on shaky ground.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Producer Prices, May

Disinflation continues; pass-through to consumer inflation is inevitable

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Consumer Prices, May

Used cars hit again, but for the last time; decent chance of a 0.2% July core

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: NFIB Survey, May

Still signalling recession, despite stock price bounce.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Services Survey, May

Softening, pointing to slower growth in payrolls and wages.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Employment, May

Wild, but a Fed pause is still a good bet, just

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Still bouncing along the bottom.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

2 June 2023 US Monitor May May Payroll Risk is to the Downside, but Forecast Confidence is Low

• Downside risk for May payrolls, but these data are wild and forecast margins of error are huge.
• Expect a benign hourly wage print; the April spike likely was noise rather than signal.
• The ISM survey shows manufacturing firmly in recession, and signals a deep inventory correction.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: ADP Employment, May

A second straight upside surprise, but no clear signal for payrolls

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Chicago PMI, May

Yet another grim manufacturing survey.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: Conference Board Consumer Confidence, May

Still deteriorating, but at a less rapid pace.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: FOMC Minutes, May 3

On course for a June pause, just.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.