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The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.
People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.
The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.
The preliminary Homebase data for the payroll survey week signal an increase of about 250K.
Autos, gas prices and restaurants likely boosted April retail sales, but the core seems to have been softish.
Homebuilders’ sentiment will roll over, sooner or later, in the face of plunging mortgage demand.
Retail and wholesale profit margins fell in April, in a sign of better inflation news ahead.
Progress will be uneven, but the ongoing inventory rebuild should push margins down over the next year.
Jobless claims seem to have stabilized at about 200K per week; nothing to worry about.
The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…
…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.
Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.
Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...
...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.
The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.
The falling saving rate has allowed people to spend more as real incomes have declined...
...Usually, that would be unsustainable, but house- holds have trillions of dollars of pandemic savings.
The NFIB index of small business sentiment likely fell again in April, but the details are more important.
Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.
Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.
If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.
We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...
...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.
AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.
Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…
…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.
First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.
The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...
...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.
Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.
The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.
Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.
The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.
Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.
Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.
Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.
Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.
The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.
The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.
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