Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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May

26 July 2021 Growth is Slowing, but that Had to Happen

Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate. The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 July 2021 Are Supply-Chain Pressures Starting to Ease, at the Margin

What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June--just--but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 July 2021 Expect Another Jump in the Core CPI, but the Peak Likely has Passed

We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 July 2021 Is the Treasury Market Really Sigalling Slower Growth?

We find ourselves at odds with a couple of ideas gaining currency among the commentariat, namely, that markets are becoming less worried about inflation risk, and that the rise in...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 July 2021 Auto Sales are Falling and Prices are Rising, Supply is the Problem

The June auto sales numbers attracted very little attention last week, as the data came sandwiched between the ISM manufacturing survey and the payroll report. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 July 2021 Labor Supply Constrained Until the Fall; the Fed will be Content to Wait

We're pleased that a net 850K people moved into payroll employment in June. But most of the improvement from the 583K headline increase in May was in the state and local...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 July 2021 Upside Risk for June Payrolls, Home base Data Point to 1M Private Jobs

Our June payroll forecast is 1,050K, based largely on the Homebase small business employment data, which were dead right in May and pretty close in April.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 July 2021 The Best Way to Read ADP Might be Just to Ignore it

We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Chicago PMI, June 2021; Pending Home Sales, May 2021

In one line: Surprising in opposite directions, but neither looks representative of the broader economy,

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 June 2021 Upside Risk for the June ADP, but it Likely will Overstate Official Payrolls

We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

29 June 2021 Is Benefit Curtailment Pushing People Back to Work

Emerging evidence from the Homebase employment data suggests that the ending of federally-financed enhanced unemployment benefits in many states has not clearly pushed people back...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, May 2021

In one line: Core PCE inflation likely has peaked; look for 10%+ real consumption in Q2.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 June 2021 No End in Sight to the Surge in Orders for Capital Goods

A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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