Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Labour Market

18 May 2022 Consumption off to a Flying Start in Q1, Despite the Inflation Shock

The strong retail sales numbers for April suggest second quarter consumption is on track for 5% or so.

People appear to be drawing down some of their pandemic savings, but trillions remain.

The housing market is now clearly rolling over; even the homebuilders are acknowledging the hit.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 May 2022 Behind the Noise, Core-Core Price Increases are Moderating

The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…

…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.

Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 May 2022 CPI Base Effects Turn Favorable, but Look Out for Sequential Slowing too

Both headline and core inflation likely dropped sharp- ly in April, mostly due to base effects...

...But look out too for falling used vehicle prices, and a sequential slowing in the core-core index.

The net risk to the consensus probably is to the downside, but that’s a low-conviction call.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 May Don't Fret Over Falling Savings, People have Trillions in Excess Cash

 The falling saving rate has allowed people to spend more as real incomes have declined...

...Usually, that would be unsustainable, but house- holds have trillions of dollars of pandemic savings.

The NFIB index of small business sentiment likely fell again in April, but the details are more important.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 May 2022 Payroll Gains Likely Moderated in April, a War Hit or a Slowing Trend

We think April payrolls rose by 300K, a bit below the 380K consensus...

...but it’s not yet clear if the softening is a temporary hit from the Ukraine war, or the start of a trend.

AHE likely rebounded after calendar quirks depressed the February and March readings.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 May 2022 Another 50bp Hike Likely in June, but then Bets are Off as Inflation Falls

Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…

…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.

First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 May 2022 It's too Soon for Chair Powell to Sound Less Hawkish

The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...

...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.

Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 May 2022 Manufacturing is Set to Slow, but it is an Unreliable Guide to GDP Growth

The manufacturing sector is feeling the weight of China’s slowdown; the ISM is set to fall further.

Manufacturing is not GDP, but—like housing—it is has an outsized impact on perceptions of the economy.

The number of job openings has peaked, likely be- cause rapid hiring has reduced the Covid backlog.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Apr 2022 The Inventory Rebuild is Driving up the Trade Deficit as Imports Rocket

 The trade deficit is rocketing again as inventory- rebuilding pulls in imports of consumer goods.

Expect a fifth straight drop in pending home sales in March, with more to come.

Core capex orders rose at a decent pace in the first quarter, but the second will be better.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Apr 2022 New Home Sales are Heading South, but the Data are Volatile

The rapid, steady drop in mortgage applications signals falling new home sales for the foreseeable future.

Consumers’ confidence likely rebounded in April, as the gas price shock faded.

Seasonal quirks imply upside risk for core durable goods orders in March.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Apr 2022 Real-Time Indicators Holding Up, but Housing Demand is Falling Rapidly

The BA.2 Omicron wave is more of a ripple, so far; has the bullet been dodged? 

Near-real-time indicators mostly are strong, but housing demand is rolling over. 

Homebase data point to a solid increase in April payrolls; perhaps a bit less than in March. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

12 Apr 2022 Inflation Peak Arrives; the Downshift Could be Disorientingly Fast

Both headline and core inflation peaked in March; base effect alone will trigger a clear drop in Q2.

The risks to the March core consensus are mostly to the downside, thanks to falling used vehicle prices.

The NFIB index likely dropped again in March; it’s sensitive to the stock market and gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Apr 2022 Will High Rent Inflation be Offset by Retail Margin Compression?

High rent inflation does not preclude a return to 2% core CPI inflation next year…

…Retail margin compression, post-Covid, could easily drive negative inflation in some key components.

Vehicle inflation likely will be below zero by late summer, but margins are vulnerable elsewhere too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Apr 2022 Low and Falling Confidence is no Barrier to Strong Consumption

Spending is stronger than the confidence numbers suggest, because households are cash-rich.

The rundown of savings accumulated during the pandemic has barely begun; it has a long, long way to go.

Jobless claims are now at an all-time low, as a share of payroll employment; they can’t fall much further.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

6 Apr 2022 FOMC Minutes Likely to Show Heightened Inflation Fears

The March minutes will show FOMC members are much more worried about inflation than in January.

Mortgage applications are falling rapidly in the face of higher rates; further sustained declines are coming.

The modest rebound in the March ISM services index will be followed by further gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 Apr 2022 BA.2 is Pushing up Covid Cases, but Expect a Limited Economic Impact

The BA.2 variant is now pushing up Covid cases in the Northeast, and it will spread rapidly.

...But we are increasingly confident that the economic hit will be much smaller than during the Omicron wave.

ISM services set to rebound in the wake of the recovery in mobility; employent set to jump too?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Mar 2022 Everything Except ADP Points to a Soft March Payroll Report

  • We're sticking to our zero payroll forecast; Homebase and other data contradict ADP.
  • A rebound in February spending on services seems to have been offset by a drop in spending on goods. 
  • Core PCE inflation likely rose, but the February reading could be the peak; Q2 will see a clear downshift.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

30 Mar 2022 ADP Likely will Report Solid March Jobs, but Payrolls will be Weaker

  • We expect a solid ADP print today, but it will have no bearing on our forecast for the official jobs number…
  • …The Homebase data point clearly to substantial downside risk to the consensus payroll forecast.
  • Housing activity is set to weaken further as mortgage rates head towards 5%.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Mar 2022 How to Think About U.S. Recession Risk: It's all About the Process

  • Recessions are the process by which the private sec- tor unwinds financial imbalances...
  • ...Absent financial imbalances, recessions happen only after large exogenous shocks.
  • The U.S. private sector is in good financial shape, so near-term recession is unlikely.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence