Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

June 2021

12 May 2022 Behind the Noise, Core-Core Price Increases are Moderating

The April core CPI was lifted by a huge leap in airline fares; vehicle prices were disappointingly strong too…

…But the downshift in core-core price gains continued, and it has further to go as wage increases slow.

Inflation is likely to end the year higher than we previously thought, but the trend will be clearly falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 May 2022 Can Solid Wage Gains and Easing Wage Pressure Co-exist

Payroll growth remains solid, but has slowed from its peaks; signals for late spring and summer are mixed.

Surveys point to job gains at about 250K, but they ignore the huge post-Covid hiring backlog.

If the recent slowdown in wage growth is sustained, the Fed won’t have to keep hiking by 50bp for long.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 May 2022 Another 50bp Hike Likely in June, but then Bets are Off as Inflation Falls

Two more 50bp hikes expected by Mr. Powell, but once inflation is falling, back to 25bp moves…

…This will happen sooner than markets expect; by the July meeting, inflation will have dropped sharply.

First quarter productivity likely fell sharply, but these data are wild; we remain medium-term optimists.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 May 2022 It's too Soon for Chair Powell to Sound Less Hawkish

The Fed will hike by 50bp today; it’s too soon for Chair Powell to sound less hawkish, despite falling stocks...

...But we’re keen to see how much emphasis he puts on the coming drop in inflation and housing activity.

Mobility data signal upside risk for ISM services, after Omicron; ADP due too, but it doesn’t matter at all.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Apr 2022 The Inventory Rebuild is Driving up the Trade Deficit as Imports Rocket

 The trade deficit is rocketing again as inventory- rebuilding pulls in imports of consumer goods.

Expect a fifth straight drop in pending home sales in March, with more to come.

Core capex orders rose at a decent pace in the first quarter, but the second will be better.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Apr 2022 Real-Time Indicators Holding Up, but Housing Demand is Falling Rapidly

The BA.2 Omicron wave is more of a ripple, so far; has the bullet been dodged? 

Near-real-time indicators mostly are strong, but housing demand is rolling over. 

Homebase data point to a solid increase in April payrolls; perhaps a bit less than in March. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Apr 2022 One Better Month is not a Trend, but the March CPI Offers Real Hope

Plunging used vehicle prices explains the undershoot in the March core CPI; they have much further to fall.

Some other components rose by less than recent trends, but too soon to know if it's more than noise.

Rebounding airline fares and profit margins signal upside risk for the March core PPI.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

11 Apr 2022 Will High Rent Inflation be Offset by Retail Margin Compression?

High rent inflation does not preclude a return to 2% core CPI inflation next year…

…Retail margin compression, post-Covid, could easily drive negative inflation in some key components.

Vehicle inflation likely will be below zero by late summer, but margins are vulnerable elsewhere too.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Apr 2022 A 2/10 Inversion is not a Reliable Signal of Impending Recession

Recessions follow sustained curve inversions, but the lag is long; other indicators are more useful.

The private sector is under no aggregate financial pressure; solid growth is a better bet than recession.

The Fed is set to hike by 50bp in May, but June remains an open question.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 Apr 2022 Payroll Growth is Slowing, but it's Still Solid; Wage Gains Moderating?

  • Payroll Growth is still Strong and broad, but the trend likely will moderate as previous peaks draw nearer
  • Participation continues to increase, suggesting that the period of peak supply/demand imbalance is over.
  • Wage growth looks to be moderating, but a 3.6% unemployment print signals a 50bp hike next month.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

18 Mar 2022 Homebase Data Signal Weak March Payrolls, Despite Recent Strength

  • Our interpretation of the Homebase data suggests payroll growth stalled in March…
  • …This might be nothing more than a blip, or Homebase could be wrong; but it's not what we expected.
  • Auction data show the drop in used vehicle prices is accelerating; downside risk for existing home sales.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Dec 2021 The Omicron Wave will Hit Activity Hard, but not for Long; we Hope

The U.K.'s exponential leap in Covid cases and plunge in services activity is coming to the U.S., soon.

We hope the Omicron wave will be brief, but it is cer- tain to be severe, at least in terms of cases.

The robust industrial recovery continues, with every chance of further increases in output in Q1.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Dec 2021 Faster Tapering, and Faster Hikes

The Fed's tapering and rate hike plans assume only a modest hit from Omicron; we hope they're right.

Chair Powell emphasised the threat from rapid wage gains; all eyes on labor participation, and the Q4 ECI.

The abrupt slowing in core retail sales in November is no big deal; a correction was due after rapid gains.



Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Dec 2021 The FOMC is Set to Accelerate the Taper, and to Project Two 2022 Hikes

The Fed will announce faster tapering today, opening the door to a rate hike in the spring.

The dotplot likely will show two rate hikes in 2022, triggered by the run of upside inflation surprises.

Core retail sales likely undershot consensus in November, but the trend is still strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Dec 2021 Brace for Higher Core PPI Inflation, but the Peak is not Far Off

Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.

The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...

...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Industrial Production, October 2021

  • In one line: The recovery continues, but the m/m October rebound overstates the trend

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: Empire State Survey, November 2021

  • In one line: Demand still strong; supply chain pressures peaking?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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