Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

June

23 Sept 2022 US Monitor Why is the Fed so Determined that the Labor Market Must Weaken

  • Even if margin re-compression crushes inflation over the next year, wages pose a medium-term threat...
  • ...That’s why the Fed is so determined to drive a weakening in the labor market.
  • But policymakers’s fears of sustained wage-driven inflation likely overstate the danger.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2022 US Monitor Core PPI Inflation is Falling Rapidly, Despite Technical Quirks in August

  • Core PPI inflation is falling fast, despite upward pressure from a technical issue in August.
  • Core retail sales likely rose at a decent pace in August, though the margin of error is bigger than usual.
  • A calendar quirk probably will constrain reported manufacturing output in August.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

13 Sept 2022 US Monitor Another Moderate Core CPI Print is a Good Bet, but not a Certainty

  • Core inflation clearly is slowing, but August brings risks in both directions; vehicle prices are wild.  
  • Airline fares likely plunged, but hotel room rates probably jumped, and rents are still rising strongly.
  • Small business sentiment likely rebounded as gas prices dropped, and selling prices probably fell.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2022 US Monitor Upside Risk for August Payrolls, but the Seasonal is a Wild Card

  • The Homebase data point to another solid payroll gain, but the August seasonal is a wild card.
  • Wage growth appears to be picking up slightly, but we need more data to be sure.
  • The ISM has stabilized, and the supply-chain measures point to much lower inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2022 US Monitor ADP is Back Today, but no Details on the New Method have been Released

  • The ADP employment report returns today, with new methodology; forecasts are, therefore, a joke.
  • The number of JOLTS job openings remains close to the peak, but are the data believable?
  • Consumer confidence is rebounding as falling gas prices boost people’s spending power.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Aug 2022 US Monitor Business Surveys Now Point--Just-- to Outright Falls in Margins

Key regional surveys now show that supply conditions have improved enough to push down margins.

The upturn in jobless claims since the spring is overstated by seasonal problems; the labor market is fine.

Capital goods orders are rising at a decent, steady pace, but inflation is offsetting the gains, for now.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2022 US Monitor Powell To Hint at a 50bp Sep Hike?

Chair Powell likely will reiterate that the Fed is now data-dependent; 75bp is not certain for September.

Student loan forgiveness will not materially boost growth or inflation, or threaten the public finances. 

Imports appear to be falling quite quickly; a drop in the trade deficit will boost Q3 GDP growth.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence