Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...
Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
The Homebase data suggest August payrolls were about as strong as July's.
Core retail sales likely rose quite strongly in July; the headline will be depressed by falling gas prices.
Soaring vehicle production is flattering industrial pro- duction, but it will boost GDP and depress inflation.
The current pace of unit labor costs growth, if sustained, is incompatible with the inflation target…
…But wage growth will slow next year, and productivity growth will rebound.
More immediately, disinflation over the next year will be driven by margin re-compression.
Wage growth remains too fast for comfort, but it should slow as participation rebounds.
All core inflation measures are now falling despite solid wage growth; margins close to a peak.
Third quarter GDP growth is set to rebound strongly, led by inventories, but consumption looks better too.
Payroll growth looks to have slowed to about 250K in July, continuing the slowing trend.
The Q2 employment costs index should show that wage growth has softened markedly.
GDP growth likely will rebound in Q3, but final demand will be weak; that matters more to the Fed.
The Fed followed the script, but Chair Powell was careful to avoid making predictions for September.
With eight weeks of softer data to come before the next meeting, we think 50bp is a solid September bet.
The economy likely shrank at a 0.5% rate in the second quarter, thanks entirely to a swing in inventories.
The Fed is boxed-in to a 75bp hike today, and the latest inflation data likely will keep the talk hawkish.
Things will change by September, but Chair Powell can’t claim victory yet, after the "transitory" debacle.
Downside risk for durable goods orders and pending home sales today; the housing crunch continues.
The plunge in mortgage applications points to sub- stantial downside risk for June new home sales.
Case-Shiller will report rising home price in May, but you should ignore the data; prices are now falling.
Chainstore sales growth is refusing to follow the weakening script; is spending still rising so quickly?
More of the same from the Fed and Chair Powell this week; it’s too soon for a less aggressive stance.
Margin expansion is the inflationary driver which dare not speak its name, at least at the Fed.
As margins re-compress, massively, core inflation will fall quickly; the Fed will switch to 50bp in September.
CPI rents are accelerating, but not for much longer, given the sharp slowing in asking rents.
Rising supply of homes for sale will also release supply in rental markets; landlords’ margins will fall.
The Philly Fed likely has hit bottom, but the bigger story is the rapid improvement of supply constraints.
Home prices are falling; don’t be deceived by the high year-over-year rate...
Plunging sales and soaring inventory will drive a shift to a new, lower equilibrium level of prices.
Expect a modest bounce in the July Philly Fed, and further signs of easing supply constraints.
Payroll growth likely slowed in July, but only modestly; Homebase data point to 300K or so.
Housing construction activity is falling rapidly, with a further 20%-plus decline likely.
Existing home sales probably fell in June, with inventory up and prices down; the rollover is underway.
Capital spending plans have been slashed since the invasion of Ukraine and the surge in rates...
But the fundamental need to rebuild the capital stock remains urgent; look for a late summer rebound.
Homebuilders have finally got the message; demand has tanked, and construction has to fall sharply.
Consumption likely rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in Q2; not bad, under the circumstances.
Non-auto manufacturing is sliding towards recession, but it is not representative of the whole economy.
The plunge in energy prices means that the July PPI likely will rise by only a couple tenths.
Headline retail sales in June likely flattered by higher gas prices, but we look for solid core numbers too...
Manufacturing output looks to be stalling; is the auto sector the exception as chip supply improves?
Core PPI inflation is now clearly trending downwards, but the real shift will come when margins start to fall.
Unexpected surges in an array of unconnected components lifted the June CPI; likely noise not signal.
Rents likely will rise strongly for a few more months, but should then slow.
The June PPI should confirm that margins have peaked, and might be falling already.
Behind the headline spike, a June repeat of May’s 0.6% surge in the core CPI seems unlikely...
...Airline fares, used auto prices, hotel room rates all likely were better-behaved; rents are a wild card.
The NFIB survey is consistent with other evidence pointing to easing core-core inflation pressures.
We expect a further clear deterioration in small business owners’ sentiment...
...But the labor market is not quite as tight as last summer, and inflation pressures likely have eased.
Real-time data are still holding up, though July 4 distortions obscure the very latest picture.
Payroll growth has stabilized at about 350K, but smaller gains are coming later in the summer/fall.
Wage gains have slowed far enough to exert material downward pressure on core-core inflation.
The Fed does not need to hike by 75bp this month; the risk of a wage-price spiral is small.
Homebase suggests payrolls rose about 225K, provided the seasonal adjustment behaves.
We expect further confirmation that wage growth has slowed, consistent with survey evidence.
The drop in stock prices likely will lift participation among older people, given the hit to their 401(k)s.
The June FOMC minutes talk of a second quarter growth rebound and upside inflation risks...
Things change quickly in three weeks, and we think 50bp is in play this month.
Jobless claims likely nudged up a bit last week, but look out for volatility over the next few weeks.
Filter by Keyword
Filter by Publication Type
Filter by Author
Global Publications Only
Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)
Inflation Growth Labour Market Monetary Policy Fiscal Policy Quantitive Easing Trade Investment Housing Inventories Banks Money Credit Inflation Expectations Asset Prices Industry Services Balance of Payments Saving Profits Companies Central Banks
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence