Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

July

7 May 2021 April Payrolls Likely Rose at a Solid Pace, but Bigger Gains are Coming

April Payrolls Likely Rose at a Solid Pace, but Bigger Gains are Coming

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th May 2021 00:20U.S.

1 Apr 2021 ADP Confirms Payroll Momentum in March, but Bigger Gains Lie Ahead

ADP Confirms Payroll Momentum in March, but Bigger Gains Lie Ahead

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Apr 2021 00:20U.S.

2 Mar 2021 The Services Sector is Stirring as Covid Cases Plunge

2 Mar 2021 The Services Sector is Stirring as Covid Cases Plunge

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Mar 2021 00:30U.S.

12 Feb 2021 B117 is Spreading Across the U.S., the Race with Vaccinations is on

B117 is Spreading Across the U.S., the Race with Vaccinations is on

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Feb 2021 00:20U.S.

21 Jan 2021 Jobless Claims Set to Drop; Last Week's Spike was a Seasonal Fluke

The spike in initial jobless claims last week was merely a correction after a run of below-trend readings, and we expect it to reverse over the next couple weeks. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jan 2021 00:20U.S.

20 Jan 2021 Don't Worry About the Dip in Savings Balances, They're Still Huge

Don't Worry About the Dip in Savings Balances, They're Still Huge

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Jan 2021 00:20U.S.

24 Dec 2020 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Stories in the Latest Data

This is the final U.S. Monitor for 2020, a year we'll be thrilled to leave behind.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

21 Dec 2020 A Bill Beats No Bill, but it Could have been so Much Better

Any Covid relief bill is better than no Covid relief bill, but the measures set to be passed by Congress after our Sunday deadline do not represent the most efficient use of the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

1 Dec 2020 Help is Needed for the Unemployed, but the Employed Drive Growth

While we wait to see the extent to which Thanksgiving travel and family gatherings interrupted the emerging downshift in U.S. Covid cases, this week brings a ton of new data on...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

30 Nov 2020 The Services Sector is Weakening, can Spending on Goods Save Q4?

You've probably read several media stories by now reporting that retail spending over the Thanksgiving weekend was up, down, or unchanged from a year ago, based on credit card...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

24 Nov 2020 Home Prices are Rocketing, but the Rapid Gains Likely won't Persist

The surge in U.S. median home prices has morphed from merely startling to truly remarkable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

13 Nov 2020 Banks Threatened to Turn the Screws on Borrowers, but Haven't

The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Surveys in April and July were deeply alarming, signaling that banks were aggressively tightening lending standards for firms of all sizes.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

20 Oct 2020 The U.S. Monetary Expansion Might Boost Inflation After Covid...or Not

If you were to return home to find your home ablaze, heaven forbid, and the fire department hard at work to douse the flames, would you be more concerned about your impending...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

19 Oct 2020 The Big Threat to Q4 Consumption is Covid, not Consumers' Cashflow

The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

9 Oct 2020 Healthcare Services are Emerging as an Inflation Threat

Our comments on the inflation outlook over the last few months have focused mostly on the risk of continued mean-reversion in some of the components crushed by Covid, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

1 Oct 2020 September Payrolls Look a Bit Better After ADP, October Seems Weak

We're happy that ADP beat our forecast yesterday-- an extra 250K jobs doesn't change the world, but it's better than the opposite--and we're lifting our...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

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