Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

July

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

  • Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
  • …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
  • The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 Sept 2021 Core CPI Constrained Again as Used Cars, Lodging Components Soften

  • The run of huge gains in the core CPI is over; the big- gest change is the end of the surge in used car prices.
  • Hotel room rates and airline fares likely fell last month too, thanks to the Delta hit.
  • The NFIB survey likely will be Delta-bruised too, but the labor market numbers are very strong.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

9 Sept 2021 Delta is Peaking; Real-Time Data to Start Rising Again by End-Month

The Covid Delta wave appears to have peaked; a steady decline in cases is a good bet.

Most states now appear to have immunity rates above 70%; that's enough to limit future waves.

The seasonals point to another drop in jobless claims today, but Delta is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Sept 2021 Core PPI Inflation is Still Rising, but Monthly Gains Look Set to Slow

  • Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow.
  • Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in autos; this can't last forever.
  • The drop in jobless claims reported yesterday is noise, not signal, and it says nothing about payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Sept 2021 Job-Switching has Soared, the Wage Premium for Switching has not

  • The elevated quits rate shows that people are much more willing to switch jobs than usual...
  • ...But wage gains for job-switchers are in line with previous experience; no inflation threat here.
  • Chainstore sales held up surprisingly well in August; the flipside of falling spending on services?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

2 Sept 2021 The Delta Wave is Making Itself Felt in Labor Market Data, More to Come

  • Homebase and ADP both suggest Delta hurt August job gains; we look for a 400K payroll print tomorrow.
  • The modest August gain in the ISM likely won't be sustained; supply-chain pressures have peaked.
  • Mortgage applications have risen for two straight months; the revival likely will continue in September

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Sept 2021 ADP Likely to Report a Solid Gain in August Private Payrolls

  • We look for a 700K rebound in ADP's measure of pri- vate payrolls for August, but it is not always reliable.
  • China's weakening PMIs and lower regional U.S. read- ings point to downside risk for the ISM index today.
  • New housing construction has peaked; it will soon start to fall, following the drop in new home sales

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, July 2021

  • In one line: The trend has steadied in recent months after the spring drop. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

31 Aug 2021 Home Price Gains are Slowing, Case- Shiller will Catch Up, Eventually

  • The rate of increase of existing home prices is slowing sharply, but the Case-Shiller data are slow to respond.
  • Downside risk for August consumer confidence, but we already know that Delta is scaring people.
  • Boeing's recovery is supporting the Chicago PMI, but growth in national manufacturing is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income, July 2021; Advance Goods Trade, July 2021

  • In one line: Consumption temporarily under pressure as stimulus hit fades and Delta strikes.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Aug 2021 More of the Same from Chair Powell Today, Waiting for Fall Labor Data

  • Chair Powell can't signal a tapering start date today because the Fed first needs to see fall labor data.
  • Expect the usual themes instead; inflation will be "transitory", insufficient progress to taper, and Delta risk.
  • Upside risk for both consumers' spending and the core PCE deflator in today's July data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Aug 2021 Is the Delta Wave Pushing up Mortgage Demand

  • Mortgage demand appears to be rebounding strongly, despite only a very modest dip in rates...
  • ...Has the Covid surge triggered another—albeit smaller—flight to the suburbs?
  • Jobless claims likely unchanged this week, but the trend is downwards, despite Delta.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

25 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure and Social Spending Bills will Pass, Eventually

We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.

Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.

New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

24 Aug 2021 China Decoupling is a Distraction from Cyclical Developments

  • The U.S. and China have reached peak economic integration; the next big move is the other way...
  • ...But this is a longer term trend story; for now, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing are still closely linked.
  • Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, July 2021

  • In one line: Sales outperforming mortgage demand, but inventory is rising and price gains are slowing. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

23 Aug 2021 U.S. Covid Cases Set to Peak Soon, Delta Waves are Brutal but Short

  • Delta waves are brutal but relatively short; U.S. daily Covid cases should peak by the end of August.
  • The interruption to the economic recovery should not last beyond September; behavior will lag the data.
  • Home price gains are slowing sharply as inventory rises and demand returns to pre-Covid levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Aug 2021 The Hawks Want to Taper Very Soon, they will be Disappointed

  • FOMC splits and the Delta wave suggest the tapering announcement will be no sooner than November.
  • The trend in jobless claims seems still to be falling, as the run of seasonally-distorted numbers ends.
  • Downside risk for the Philly Fed today; the global manufacturing recovery is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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