U.S. Documents

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Jobless Claims

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims/Philadelphia Fed, March

Weather hit to claims reverses; Philly Fed is much weakter than it looks

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims, week ending 4 March.

Temporarily boosted by bad weather, but a sustained increase is in sight.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Jobless Claims

Bottoming, and likely to rise sharply in the spring

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 18 Feb 23/Q4 GDP revisions

Claims still in a low and narrow range; core PCE deflator for Q4 revised up

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, 4 February

Favorable weather effects starting to fade?

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Q4 GDP/Weekly Jobless Claims

Most of the GDP growth is in trade and inventories; final demand is weak

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philadelphia Fed Survey, January/Weeklu Jobless Claims

Philly Fed stabilizing, maybe; claims don't tell the whole labor market story

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S.CPI, December/Weekly Jobless Claims

Improving core trend is now in place.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

12 Jan 2023 US Monitor December's Core CPI Data Should Reinforce the Improving Trend

A third straight benign core CPI print for December would complete the best streak in two years.
Look out for falling vehicle prices and airline fares, and—perhaps—slower rent increases.
Jobless claims likely stayed low last week, but rising layoff announcement signal trouble ahead.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment/Jobless Claims

ADP and Homebase signal upside payroll risk tomorrow

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Held down by seasonals; expect a big rebound next week

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Philly Fed/Empire State/Jobless Claims

Mixed industrial surveys; don't believe the drop in claims

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, December 3

The trend is rising, but expect noise over the next few weeks.

Kieran Clancy (U.S. Economist)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, October/Weekly Jobless Claims

Q4 consumption set for 3%-plus, but trouble brewing ahead

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 Dec 2022 US Monitor Manufacturing is Weak, but the ISM Remains Above Recession Levels

Consumption started the fourth quarter quite strongly; 3%-plus seems a decent bet.

Core PCE price pressures eased sequentially in October; further down shifts ahead?

Last week’s jump in the initial jobless claims likely was not a fluke; the trend probably is rising.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 Nov 2022 US Monitor Don't be Deceived by Strong-Looking Homes Sales and Orders

Strong looking October new home sales and durable goods orders data are misleading

Home sales and prices have further to fall and the trend in core capex orders has slowed markedly.

The upturn in jobless claims is a better guide to what’s really happening; the economy is softening.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims, 19 November

The trend is now rising and has further to go

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 Nov 2022 US Monitor Layoffs are set to Rise, Pointing to Slower Payroll Growth Next Year

Layoff announcements are not a reliable guide to jobless claims in the short term...
...But we cannot ignore the upward trend in recent months; claims likely will follow.
Regional Fed surveys point to a sharp slowdown in capital spending, but it is not in the hard data yet.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.