Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Initial Jobless Claims 7 29 2021

US Datanote: U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims 10 21 21; Philly Fed, October 2021

  • In one line: Claims have further to fall; Philly details stronger than the headline.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

21 Oct 2021 Layoffs are Set to Hit New Lows as the Economy Rebounds After Delta

  • The recent pace of decline in initial jobless claims can't be sustained, but they should keep falling.
  • As the economy re-accelerates post-Delta, labor de- mand will rise and layoffs will hit new lows.
  • Home sales likely rose strongly in September, but the impact of Hurricane Ida is a wild card.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, September 2021

  • In one line: Better than the headlines, but still Delta-constrained.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

8 Oct 2021 September Payrolls Likely Better than August, but Still Hurt by Delta

  • Homebase data for the payroll survey week point to a 600K increase in September.
  • It's too soon to expect to see big changes in participation due to benefit expiration and school reopening
  • As the economy rebounds from Delta, rising partici- pation will facilitate a run of big payroll gains.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 Oct 2021 Consumers are Awash with Cash, so why has Credit Growth Rebounded

  • Consumer credit growth has surged; are people using stimulus checks as loan down-payments?
  • ADP suggests modest upside risk to our 500K payroll forecast, but not enough to change it.
  • Jobless claims have been lifted by seasonal factors and Hurricane Ida; have they now peaked?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S ADP Employment, September 2021

  • In one line: Much better than August, but not a consistently reliable guide to payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Services, September 2021

  • In one line: Activity strong, despite Delta; supply pressures still severe.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S ISM Manufacturing Survey, September 2021

  • In one line: Solid orders growth, despite China slowdown and supply-chain problems.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Advance Trade in Goods, August 2021

  • In one line: The trend in the goods deficit is well above the pre-Covid level, but steady.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence