Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

February 2021 Services

17 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales Signal Resilience in the Face of Delta

  • Technicalities flatter August retail sales, but the upside surprise is real; an echo of earlier Covid-era patterns.
  • States suffering most from the Delta wave have rela- tively low immunity, but the national wave is breaking.
  • The risk of a serious further wave is fading as total immunity approaches Delta-suppressing levels.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

16 Sept 2021 Delta and Chip Shortages Likely Hit August Retail Sales

  • Another soft retail sales report today seems inevitable, thanks to Delta, with more pain likely in September.
  • Expect a rebound in jobless claims from last week's cycle low, thanks to claims delayed by Hurricane Ida.
  • It's too soon to read any signal about September pay- rolls from the Homebase data; patience required.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 Sept 2021 The Surge is Over, but Don't Expect Every Core CPI to Look Like August's

  • Cross-currents in the core CPI suggest further volatility over the next few months…
  • …But a repeat of the spring surge is unlikely, even as hotel room rates and airline fares rebound, post-Delta.
  • The NFIB survey hints that small firms are responding to tight labor markets by increasing their capex

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

10 Sept 2021 Core PPI Inflation is Still Rising, but Monthly Gains Look Set to Slow

  • Core PPI inflation likely hit a new high in August, but the month-to-month increases are set to slow.
  • Much of the recent surge has been due to widening margins, especially in autos; this can't last forever.
  • The drop in jobless claims reported yesterday is noise, not signal, and it says nothing about payrolls.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Index, August 2021

  • In one line: This is just the start of the Delta hit; tapering delayed.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 Sept 2021 Payroll Gains Likely Losing Momentum, Thanks to Delta

  • A 400K payroll print today would confirm other evidence pointing to a clear Delta hit to growth.
  • September payrolls likely will be depressed too; that's the last report before the November FOMC meeting.
  • Delta damage to discretionary consumers' spending signals downside risk for ISM services today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

27 Aug 2021 More of the Same from Chair Powell Today, Waiting for Fall Labor Data

  • Chair Powell can't signal a tapering start date today because the Fed first needs to see fall labor data.
  • Expect the usual themes instead; inflation will be "transitory", insufficient progress to taper, and Delta risk.
  • Upside risk for both consumers' spending and the core PCE deflator in today's July data.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

17 Aug 2021 July's Retail Sales Likely Escaped the Delta Hit, August is at Risk

July retail sales likely were barely troubled by the Covid Delta wave; the risks to August are bigger...

...Mobility data suggest that retail footfall is declining in the hardest-hit Southeastern quadrant of the U.S.

Manufacturing output likely rebounded in July, but the rate of recovery in the sector is moderating.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

14 July 2021 Covid CPI Chaos Persists;,Expect Mr. Powell to Stick to

Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 July 2021 Quits are Soaring as Power Shifts to Employees, Perhaps Temporarily

We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it’s usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to odd jumps and dips which turn out not to be significant.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. ISM Services Survey, June 2021

In one line: Headline hit by fading stimulus kick, but still high.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

15 June 2021 Brace for Rising Covid Cases as the Delta Variant Takes Hold

We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

4 June 2021 ADP Likely Overstates May Payrolls, Homebase Data are Softer, Again

We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

3 June 2021 May ADP Payrolls Likely Constrained by the April Softness in Official Data

ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

1 June 2021 The Fed won't Rush to Judgment on the Post-Covid Labor Market

Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first chart, that the reopening has triggered a big spike in prices—mostly across the Covid-hit services sector—it's no longer a forecast.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

28 May 2021 Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April

The astonishing 0.9% leap in the April core CPI won't be replicated in the core PCE deflator.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

7 May 2021 April Payrolls Likely Rose at a Solid Pace, but Bigger Gains are Coming

We're expecting to see a headline April payroll print of 1,100K today, following the 742K ADP number reported Wednesday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

5 May 2021 ADP Likely will Show Payrolls Rose, but didn't Rocket, in April

We can't be as bullish about today's April ADP employment report as we had hoped in the wake of the continued reopening of the economy over the past month. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

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