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A welcome slowing in core PCE services price gains, but one month is not enough
Sales will remain stuck at low levels until affordability improves dramatically.
Net trade will have little impact on Q1 GDP.
Capital spending faces a grim few months.
Homebuilders continue to slash prices to shift excess supply.
A dramatic improvement in affordability is still needed before sales can recover.
Upside surprise in manufacturing output is misleading; the near-term outlook remains grim.
Don't be fooled by the February bounce; a sustained recovery in housing construction is still a long way off.
Reversal of January spike in control sales delayed, not cancelled.
Not good enough to stop the Fed hiking next week, provided markets are calm
Fall in stock prices to snuff out modest rebound in NFIB.
Enough softness to reduce the odds of 50bp this month.
ADP is an unreliable guide to payrolls; ignore it.
The jump in the employment index likely is noise.
Still struggling for now, but boost from China reopening is coming.
Consumer confidence points to softer consumption growth; we're lowering our foreacst for ISM manufacturing.
Surprise! Homebuilders like warm winters too
China rebound plus warm January = happier manufacturers, for now
Consumers unfazed by uptick in gas prices
Favorable weather effects starting to fade?
U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence