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Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Another outsized increase in the ECI measure of wages would be awkward…
…But the Fed will argue that increased labor supply in the fall will prevent inflationary wage gains.
Q2 GDP growth was depressed by a wild swing in inventories; expect a rebound in Q3.
Tapering is inching closer, but talk of rate hikes is de-ferred unless and until labor market signals flash red.
The economy likely expanded at an 8.0% rate in Q2, led by consumption and business investment.
Jobless claims look set to disappoint again today, and look for a big drop in pending home sales..
Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta.
Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to suppress the spread of Delta.
Home price gains are set to slow sharply, but rents are likely to accelerate in the second half.
A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.
For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI, rose faster than broad inflation.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
In one line: The drop in permits is more important than the jump in starts.
The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period—that is, the week, two weeks, or month—which included Monday, July 12, counts as employed.
The strong June retail sales numbers don't prove anything, but they are consistent with the idea that people have sufficient resources, and sufficient inclination, to maintain—at least—their spending on goods, even as spending on reopening services surges.
What should we make of the news that manufacturing production fell outright in June—just—but that the Empire State manufacturing index has rocketed to a record high?
The 12% GDP growth we had hoped to see in the second quarter now looks unlikely; we've cut our estimate to an annualized rate of 9 1/2%
Consumption is the biggest single component of GDP, accounting for 68% of the economy.
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