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We expect both the infrastructure and social spending bills to pass, but the path is winding and arduous.
Downside risk for July durable goods orders today, thanks to the aircraft component; the core will be fine.
New home inventory is rocketing, so the rate of increase of prices is set to plummet.
Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate.
The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once clarity emerges in the labor market.
We see hefty downside risk to June new home sales; forecasts ignore the plunge in mortgage demand.
The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.
The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period—that is, the week, two weeks, or month—which included Monday, July 12, counts as employed.
We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.
The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post—seehere—focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure.
We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month.
A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today—we look for a 3.0% increase, close to the 2.8% consensus—but we also expect a further robust increase in the core too.
The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no longer below the target.
In 2015, key labor market indicators from the NFIB small business survey returned to levels last seen at the peak of the cycle in 2007, and unemployment hit the Fed's then-estimate of the Nairu.
The May employment report did not resolve any of the key labor market issues keeping the Fed awake at night. The 559K increase in payrolls was welcome, and it marked a clear improvement on April's revised 278K gain, but it left the economy still 7.6M jobs down from the pre-Covid level, and nearly 11M short of the level we would have expected if the pandemic hadn't happened.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
After two months of upside surprises, most auto industry publications expect today's May headline sales number to drop quite sharply,
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first chart, that the reopening has triggered a big spike in prices—mostly across the Covid-hit services sector—it's no longer a forecast.
Why should we care about inflation expectations? After all, we don't care much about what people think about other aspects of the economy, because they tend to respond to events which have already happened, like prior movements in stock prices, gas prices, elections, and interest rates.
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