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For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...
22nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June.
14th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
We have never taken much notice of the quits rate from the JOLTS report, on the grounds that it's usually just a proxy for the unemployment rate, released with a lag and prone to...
7th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.
In one line: Headline hit by fading stimulus kick, but still high.
6th Jul 2021 16:21U.S.
We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak.
15th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.
We still look for a 550K May headline payroll print today, with private payrolls up 500K, despite the 978K ADP reading yesterday.
4th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.
In one line: Strong demand, tight supply, prices rising.
3rd Jun 2021 16:03U.S.
ADP hugely overstated the official payroll number in April, compounding the shock in markets from the 266K headline print, with private payrolls up only 218K.
3rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.
Let's try to put ourselves into the shoes of the FOMC, as the economy builds momentum on the back of the reopening. It is now abundantly clear from hard data, shown in our first...
1st Jun 2021 00:30U.S.
Core PCE Inflation is Headed for 3%- plus, but Probably not in April
28th May 2021 00:20U.S.
April Payrolls Likely Rose at a Solid Pace, but Bigger Gains are Coming
7th May 2021 00:20U.S.
ADP Likely will Show Payrolls Rose, but didn't Rocket, in April
5th May 2021 00:20U.S.
The Biden Agenda is Startlingly Ambitious, Achievability is Unclear
30th Apr 2021 00:20U.S.
Too Soon for Taper Talk, Again, Despite the Improving Outlook
29th Apr 2021 00:20U.S.
More Powell Pushback on Taper Timing Coming Today
28th Apr 2021 00:20U.S.
Soaring Used Car and Truck Prices will Help Lift Inflation in Q2
26th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.
Layoffs are Falling Fast;,Returning to Previous Norms by the Summer
23rd Apr 2021 00:20U.S.
First Quarter Growth Likely was About 6%, Expect Better in Q2
20th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.
The Council of Economic Advisors Might be Right About Inflation, or...
19th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.
Core CPI Set To Rebound as the Services Sector Comes Back to Life
13th Apr 2021 00:30U.S.
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