Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

August

22 Dec 2020 The Revival of the PPP is the Best Part of the New Covid Relief Bill

The biggest single component of the new Covid relief bill is the re-funding of the Paycheck Protection Program, with a total of $284B

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

8 Dec 2020 Small Business Sentiment Set to Drop, but Details are More Important

Small business owners--at least, those who are members of the NFIB and respond to its monthly survey--were delighted by the election of President Trump in November 2016.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

18 Nov 2020 The Restaurant Recovery Stalled in October, Reversal in November

After five straight months of gains, during which the food service component of retail sales recovered 73% of the ground lost in March and April, during the initial Covid...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

16 Nov 2020 Expect Rolling Restrictions and Lockdowns, Covid is Out of Control

The story of the next few weeks will be a gradual and uneven--but unambiguous--tightening of anti-Covid restrictions across the country.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

9 Nov 2020 October Payrolls were Good, but Nothing Like Good Enough

October payrolls surprised us to the upside, prompting a wave of chatter from the commentariat to the effect that the labor market is healing. Well, it was healing, in the week...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Nov 2020 00:10U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

19 Oct 2020 The Big Threat to Q4 Consumption is Covid, not Consumers' Cashflow

The third quarter ended with a bit of a bang for retailers, with sales rising strongly, even in the woebegone department store sector. The apparent loss of momentum in July and...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)19th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

13 Oct 2020 Stimulus Foundering on the Strong Objections of Some GOP Senators

As we reach our deadline Monday afternoon, the Columbus Day long weekend has brought no progress on the fiscal front.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

7 Oct 2020 Stable Covid Numbers Alone won't Rescue the Economy

The daily number of confirmed new U.S. Covid-19 cases has leveled-off over the past couple weeks, and the rate of increase of hospitalizations has slowed appreciably.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)7th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: Weekly jobless claims, Personal income and spending, August 2020

In one line: The trend decline in claims is barely visible; spending momentum has slowed sharply.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Oct 2020 16:44U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Pending Home Sales, August 2020

In one line: The surge in home sales continues unabated.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Sep 2020 16:06U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. advance goods trade, August 2020

In one line: Imports rebounding faster than exports, driving up the deficit.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Sep 2020 16:09U.S.

28 Sept 2020 36 Days to Go, Who will Win, and What will they Do?

First, apologies for a much more dense report than usual; there's a lot of ground to cover here. The most likely outcome of the November 3 election right now is a Democrat...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Durable goods orders, August 2020

In one line: Solid core behind the soft headlines.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)25th Sep 2020 15:49U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, August 2020

In one line: Spectacular, but it's the only V, and it can't continue at this pace.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Sep 2020 16:19U.S.

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