Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

August

1 Nov 2022 US Monitor JOLTS Already Signals Slower Job Gains; Brace for a Further Decline

  • The plunge in job openings was the biggest surprise in the August data; what happened in September?
  • The ISM manufacturing index likely fell again in October, but it remains well above recession levels.
  • Auto sales appear to have rebounded very strongly in October as supply continued to improve.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

26 Oct 2022 US Monitor Foreign Trade Drove Q3 GDP; did the Deficit Fall Again in September?

  • Foreign trade likely was the biggest single driver of Q3 GDP growth, mostly due to plunging imports…
  • …GDP forecasts could change markedly after the September advance trade and inventory data today.
  • Downside risk for September new home sales; the reported August jump is not sustainable

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. JOLTS, August

The first clear sign of weakening labor demand will pressure the Fed to do less, if it persists.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Advance Goods Trade, August

Net trade will rescue Q3 GDP; expect upward revisions to forecasts

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Existing Home Sales, August

A pause for breath, but the plunging trend in sales has further to go, and prices are falling

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

19 Sept 2022 US Monitor Q3 GDP Growth is Still Deeply Uncertain, Clear Upside Risks Persist

  • Huge uncertainty over foreign trade and inventories mean Q3 GDP growth is still a wild card.
  • We see substantial net upside risk, but other models point in the opposite direction.
  • Homebuilders’ sentiment likely has not yet bottomed; mortgage demand is still falling.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Retail Sales, August

Auto sales bump offsets gas price drop; core gains slowing but will rebound

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Producer Prices, August

Core overstated by a technicality; underlying trends improving rapidly

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, August

No chance now of a 50bp next week, but this is a setback not a reversal

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. Employment, August

Job gains moderating, participation rising; the chance of 50bp this month just increased

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

PM Datanote: U.S. ADP Employment, August

Better than the old ADP, probably, but not necessarily a reliable payroll indicator

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)U.S.

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Region

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right
Access Key Enabled Navigation
Keywords for: U.S. Documents

U.S. Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence