Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

April cpi

28 July 2021 Expect a Light Touch from the Fed Today, and Some Delta Nerves

Chair Powell will stick to his lines today, and will add that the Fed is closely watching the march of Delta. Most states appear to be short of the 85% immunity required to...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

26 July 2021 Growth is Slowing, but that Had to Happen

Some of the near-real-time data are flattening; don't worry, it had to happen, and some will re-accelerate. The recovery is still on track, though we'll be much happier once...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

23 July 2021 Don't Worry About the Contraction in C&I Lending, this is not 2008 Redux

A defining feature of the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was a sustained decline in the stock of bank lending to businesses.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

22 July 2021 Core CPI Inflation to Settle Above Core PCE as Rents Accelerate

For most of the decade before the pandemic, core CPI inflation ran a few tenths higher than core PCE inflation, mostly because rents, which are twice as important in the core CPI,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

21 July 2021 WSJ Editorial Board Article Raises Blood Pressure; Best Avoided

The Wall Street Journal ran a nonsensical editorial piece yesterday on the subject of inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

20 July 2021 No Signs in Homebase Data of Accelerating Payrolls in July

The payroll survey was conducted last week; anyone who did any paid work in the pay period--that is, the week, two weeks, or month--which included Monday, July 12, counts as...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)20th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

15 July 2021 No Blink from Chair Powell, Despite Another Surge in the CPI

Chair Powell made it clear yesterday that the Fed's leadership is sticking to its view that the reopening surge in inflation is due mostly to "base effects... and production...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

14 July 2021 Covid CPI Chaos Persists;,Expect Mr. Powell to Stick to

Fed Chair Powell will doubtless be quizzed in some detail today about the implications of yesterday's startling CPI numbers for June. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)14th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

13 July 2021 Expect Another Jump in the Core CPI, but the Peak Likely has Passed

We're expecting the third straight outsized jump in the core CPI when the June report is released today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Jul 2021 00:30U.S.

8 July 2021 Does Trimmed Mean Inflation Signal Broader Trouble Ahead

The Dallas Fed last week published a short blog post--seehere--focused on the predictive power of their trimmed mean PCE inflation measure. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)8th Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

1 July 2021 The Best Way to Read ADP Might be Just to Ignore it

We're not sure what to make of the 692K increase in the ADP measure of private payrolls, reported yesterday.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)1st Jul 2021 00:20U.S.

30 June 2021 Upside Risk for the June ADP, but it Likely will Overstate Official Payrolls

We see substantial upside risk to the June ADP employment reading today, but we think the data will overstate the official private payroll number, for a third straight month. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

24 June 2021 No End in Sight to the Surge in Orders for Capital Goods

A solid increase in aircraft orders and a rebound in the auto component likely will flatter the headline May durable goods orders number today--we look for a 3.0% increase, close...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

23 June 2021 Producer Restraint has Allowed Oil Prices to Surge, it Likely won't Last

Question: What's the fastest known mechanism for getting oil out of the ground? 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

22 June 2021 Delta is Taking Over, Low Vaccination States are Vulnerable

The Covid picture nationally continues to improve, with the seven-day average number of cases now at just 11.1K, down 24% from a week ago and 62% from a month ago. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)22nd Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

21 June 2021 What are the Chances of a 1M Payroll Print for June

The early signs are that the June payroll numbers will be materially stronger than May's.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)21st Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

18 June 2021 Mortgage Demand Appears to have Hit Bottom, Modest Recovery in H2

With half the June data now available, we're more confident now in calling the bottom for mortgage applications.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

17 June 2021 The Tapering Conversation has Begun, but don't Mention Rates

The FOMC statement yesterday changed only trivially from April, just noting that the Covid picture is improving, easing the pressure on the economy, and that inflation is no...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)17th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

16 June 2021 Is the Fed Ready to Creep Towards a Conversation About Tapering

Since the late April FOMC meeting, policymakers have seen two huge core CPI prints, alongside copious evidence that surging labor demand has collided with constrained supply,...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Jun 2021 00:20U.S.

15 June 2021 Brace for Rising Covid Cases as the Delta Variant Takes Hold

We have to talk about Covid again, unfortunately. The downward trend in U.S. cases appears to be over, for now, following a 94% drop from the January peak. 

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)15th Jun 2021 00:30U.S.

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