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Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.
No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.
No real sign yet of tariff-linked layoffs.
Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.
Challenger data point to a big rise in claims this spring.
Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.
Trend still low for now; leading indicators paint a mixed picture.
Tariff front-running prompts a surge in consumption; capex hit by Boeing strike.
Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Net trade and inventories likely dragged heavily on Q4 GDP growth.
Claims are noisy at the turn of the year; forward-looking indicators point to a renewed rise ahead.
Post-Thanksgiving volatility probably drove the jump in initial claims.
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