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- The Fed is unlikely to announce any decisions on balance sheet run-off today;
- Rates still have to rise, with March the most likely date for lift-off, but the Fed can afford to wait for QT.
- Upside risk for December new home sales, after a run of undershoots compared to mortgage applications.
- Consumers are under short-term pressure from all sides, but the turn in spending will likely come soon.
- Payrolls will be a bit slower to respond to falling Covid cases than the real-time activity data...
- ...The January and February reports will both be scarred by Omicron, even as inflation rises further.
- December's grim retail sales report likely will be fol- lowed by further weakness in January...
- Spending has been hit, temporarily, by a one-two punch from early holiday shopping, then Omicron.
- The Fed is dead set on starting to tighten soon, but the upcoming data should dampen Q2 expectations.
- The Omicron hit likely will be visible in the retail sales data, but the core goods numbers should be OK.
- Industrial production probably was depressed by very warm December weather; expect a quick rebound.
- Car prices are beginning to moderate in the PPI, both at the manufacturer and dealer margin levels.
- CPI inflation will peak in the next few months, but the speed of the coming downshift is unclear.
- China's PPI inflation is now falling and has further to go; the U.S. will follow soon.
- Seasonal adjustment issues likely pushed jobless claims up again last week, but the trend is falling.
- Covid cases look to be peaking, but ICU occupancy looks set for new pandemic highs.
- The situation will look much better a month from now, as cases drop and Paxlovid cuts hospitalizations.
- As Covid finally recedes, people will start to spend their accumulated savings.
- Covid cases still rocketing, but they likely will peak over the next couple weeks.
- The economic hit will be smaller and briefer than during the Delta wave, but it will be visible nonetheless.
- The December ISM survey likely will show that supply-chain pressures are easing, gradually
- Omicron cases likely will double over the holidays, but what matters is hospitalizations...
- ...A clear increase is inevitable, but pressure on hospi- tals will be less intense that in the January 2021 wave.
- Don't worry about November's soft core capex orders and new home sales numbers; noise not signal.
- Core PCE probably hit a 32-year high in November, but it has further to rise before peaking in February.
- Core capital goods orders are rising, but higher inflation is eating into the gains in real terms.
- Upside risk for November new home sales, given the sustained surge in mortgage applications.
Core PPI inflation has further to rise, but it should start to fall in January.
The details of the NFIB survey are more important than the headline index...
...Look out for strength in capex plans, and a modest rise in selling prices, lifted by gas prices.
- The debt ceiling deal means that net Treasury issu- ance is set to rebound, just as the Fed steps back.
- Wholesalers are rapidly rebuilding their inventory, but they have a long way to go.
- Jobless claims will be seasonally afflicted until late January, but we look for a dip today.
- Most of the variation in GDP growth since Covid has been due to wild swings in domestic demand...
- ...But net foreign trade looks set to make a meaningful contribution in Q4, alongside strong consumption.
- The continued increase in core capital goods orders signals faster future productivity growth.
- In one line: Strong core orders; claims depressed by seasonal quirk; exports soaring.
- Jobless claims look set to plunge to a new, though temporary, pandemic low.
- Downside risk for headline durable goods orders, but core capex orders are what matter.
- October's core PCE deflator likely rose by less than the core CPI, but further big gains are coming.
- The Fed wants to reach maximum employment be- fore raising rates; it's still a long way off...
- ...Fully recovering the ground lost during Covid likely will take almost a year.
- The November Philly Fed likely will add to evidence suggesting peak supply chain pressure has passed.
- The initial Homebase jobs data for the November payroll survey week look disconcertingly soft...
- ...But the data always are revised up, and the revisions are consistent; we look for 800K private jobs.
- October retail sales and industrial production num- bers today likely will confirm a solid start to Q4.
- If the Fed's transitory view is to be proved correct, wage growth has to slow, so participation has to rise.
- Productivity growth has to rise too, and global supply chain pressures have to fade.
- These are all reasonable bets, but nothing is certain, and inflation will rise much further in the near-term.
- Small businesses' sentiment has been hit hard by Delta; is a rebound now underway?
- The NFIB signals continued labor market tightness but suggests inflation will fall next year.
- Brace for upside risk in the October PPI; the September plunge in airline fares was a one-time event.
- The drop in Covid cases has stalled, thanks to a few western states; the downturn should resume soon.
- Manufacturing orders wobbling as supply chain pressures bite harder; no relief yet in sight.
- New auto sales might finally have hit bottom, or not; forecasts for October are all over the map.
- Employment costs likely accelerated in the third quarter, but are they rising dangerously fast...
- ...Or will faster wage gains be offset by stronger pro- ductivity growth, as in the late nineties?
- The softness of third quarter GDP growth has nothing to say about the fourth; expect a rebound.