Pantheon Macroeconomics
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Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.
Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.
Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.
Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.
Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,