August 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

THE ECONOMY WILL REMAIN STUCK IN A LOW GEAR IN H2

• UNEMPLOYMENT WILL WORRY THE FED MORE THAN INFLATION

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

July 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...

• ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, May

GDP on course for a misleading jump in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

June 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

LEADING LABOR MARKET INDICATORS HAVE WORSENED…

THE FED WILL EASE IN SEP, BEFORE INFLATION PEAKS

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

May 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…

• …THE FED WILL START EASING IN Q3 AS PAYROLL GAINS SLOW

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, March

Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

April 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

STAGNATION AHEAD, AS THE TARIFFS HIT REAL INCOMES…

• …THE FED WILL EASE MATERIALLY, DESPITE RISING INFLATION

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, February

 Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

March 2025 - US Economic Chartbook

THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING, NOT CRATERING…

• …CORE INFLATION TO STAY SUB-3%, ENABLING FED TO EASE

Samuel TombsUS