Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

consumer

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Oct 2020 01:50U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, September 2020

In one line: Plunging rent inflation is offsetting the surge in used car prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Oct 2020 15:36U.S.

9 Oct 2020 Healthcare Services are Emerging as an Inflation Threat

Our comments on the inflation outlook over the last few months have focused mostly on the risk of continued mean-reversion in some of the components crushed by Covid, and the...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

2 Oct 2020 Decent September Payrolls don't Guarantee a Repeat in October

We look for a 950K increase in September private payrolls, more than the 700K or so implied by the Homebase daily employment data but consistent with ADP, assuming it has...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)2nd Oct 2020 00:20U.S.

29 Sept 2020 Small Business Employment is Shrinking, October Payrolls to Fall

Our latest round-up of the key near-real-time data is not encouraging.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)29th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment, September 2020

In one line: Sentiment supported by the July/August surge in stock prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)18th Sep 2020 15:51U.S.

16 Sept 2020 The Fed will Emphasize its Pursuit of Maximum Employment Today

It's not clear if the first FOMC meeting since the release of the Fed's new Monetary Policy Strategy will bring any real shift in policy, though we think it unlikely that...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Sep 2020 00:20U.S.

10 Sept 2020 Initial Claims are Falling, but the Bigger Picture is Still Disconcerting

We're expecting to see another dip in initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits today, to about 850K, but that's only part of the story.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Sep 2020 00:10U.S.

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