Pantheon Macroeconomics

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U.S. Publications

Below is a list of our U.S. Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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consumer

US Datanote: U.S. Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment, December prelim. 2020

In one line: Surprisingly resilient, likely due to stocks, vaccine news.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)11th Dec 2020 16:03U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, November, Weekly jobless claims 2020

In one line: The broad-based core CPI increase is noteworthy; jobless boosted by unwinding of Thanksgiving seasonals.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Dec 2020 16:40U.S.

10 Dec 2020 Upside Risk for Jobless Claims, Last Week's Drop was Seasonal Noise

Most of the pre-release focus in markets this morning will be on the November CPI, but we see potential for more excitement over the weekly initial jobless claims numbers, where...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)10th Dec 2020 00:10U.S.

9 Dec 2020 Will Mortgage Demand Surge Again Post-Covid?

Most of the time, we don't pay too much attention to the weekly mortgage applications numbers from the Mortgage Bankers Association, because the noise-to- signal ratio is too...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Dec 2020 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence, November 2020

In one line: Likely not the bottom, but the late winter and spring will see a sustained rebound.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 16:04U.S.

24 Nov 2020 Home Prices are Rocketing, but the Rapid Gains Likely won't Persist

The surge in U.S. median home prices has morphed from merely startling to truly remarkable.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)24th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

23 Nov 2020 Increased QE More Likely After the Treasury Kills Fed Lending Programs

The unilateral decision of Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to allow a slew of Fed emergency lending programs to close to new borrowers on December 31, despite Fed objections, increases...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

16 Nov 2020 Expect Rolling Restrictions and Lockdowns, Covid is Out of Control

The story of the next few weeks will be a gradual and uneven--but unambiguous--tightening of anti-Covid restrictions across the country.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)16th Nov 2020 00:20U.S.

US Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, November 2020

In one line: Elections have consequences, especially for sentiment among Republicans.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Nov 2020 16:01U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, October, Weekly Jobless Claims 2020

In one line: Core inflation is stable for now; medium-term, all bets are off.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)12th Nov 2020 16:25U.S.

10 Nov 2020 The Post-Covid Era is no Longer Just a Dream, but it's Not Here Yet

Pfizer's announcement yesterday provided the answer to the--rhetorical--question we've been asking for months: Do you want to be short equities the day we learn...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)9th Nov 2020 22:40U.S.

6 Nov 2020 Powell Begs for More Fiscal Action, but More QE is Coming, Either Way

The Fed's inaction yesterday was no surprise, but it doesn't necessarily tell us anything about what will happen over the next few months.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)6th Nov 2020 00:10U.S.

30 Oct 2020 What's Happening to Wages?

Before the Covid pandemic struck, the mix-adjusted measure of wages and salaries in the employment costs index was trending up by about 3.0% year-over-year.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)30th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

28 Oct 2020 What's Really Happening to Home Prices--and What's Coming Next

The best way to answer the perennially vexed question of what's happening to home prices is to take a deep breath and cite a range, given that the four main measures of prices...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)28th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer confidence, October 2020

In one line: Not great, but not terrible, either.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 16:12U.S.

27 Oct 2020 Capex Orders and Shipments Still Rising, but Momentum is Easing

We're expecting to learn today that shipments of core capital goods jumped at a 33% annualized rate in the third quarter, a record increase, and more than reversing the 19.7%...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)27th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

26 Oct 2020 The Manufacturing Recovery Can Continue as Goods Spending Rises

Back in the olden days, we argued that shifts in the global manufacturing cycle often originated in China, and then fed into the U.S. and European data with a lag of one-to-three...

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)26th Oct 2020 00:10U.S.

23 Oct 2020 Happy Holidays Coming for (Some) Retailers even as Covid Surges

When we're thinking about the prospects for the holiday shopping season, we usually focus on two questions.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)23rd Oct 2020 01:50U.S.

US Datanote: U.S. Consumer Prices, September 2020

In one line: Plunging rent inflation is offsetting the surge in used car prices.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist and Founder)13th Oct 2020 15:36U.S.

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