Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

2 August 2024 US Monitor Payrolls are less predictable in July, but a below-consensus print is a good bet

  • Homebase data are less useful than usual in July, but business surveys point to sluggish growth in payrolls. 
  • We see an even chance of the Sahm rule being triggered and expect a below-trend 0.2% increase in AHE.
  • Growth in unit labor costs has slowed to well below 2%, pointing to further falls in core inflation ahead.  

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

1 August 2024 US Monitor Labor market worries grow at the Fed, leaving a September easing very likely

  • Chair Powell says a September easing “could be on the table”, now that labor market risks loom larger.  
  • Growth in employment costs slowed in Q2, and a further softening in wage growth ahead looks likely. 
  • The July ISM survey probably will show manufacturing is still treading water; claims are a wildcard today.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,