US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The case for softer services inflation remains intact.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
- Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
- A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff front-running prompts a surge in consumption; capex hit by Boeing strike.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Samuel TombsUS
Net trade and inventories likely dragged heavily on Q4 GDP growth.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- GDP rose by 2.3% in Q4, and measures of underlying momentum were even stronger...
- ...But growth is now extremely dependent on consumption, which likely will slow markedly from here.
- Expect a modest 0.8% rise in the Q4 ECI today, and smaller increases over coming quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
Aircraft likely drove a plunge in equipment investment in Q4.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Chair Powell said revisions to the FOMC’s statement were “not meant to send a signal”.
- We’re revising our Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%, from 2.0%, due to weak trade and inventories data.
- Federal government payrolls could easily drop by between 100K and 200K by October.
Samuel TombsUS
- We think GDP rose by around 2% in Q4, driven mainly by another strong increase in consumption.
- Tariffs muddy the waters, but we expect growth to be much weaker this year than in 2024.
- The FOMC is unlikely to signal less easing after only one month’s better than expected labor market data.
Samuel TombsUS
New home sales likely to tread water at best.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- People are using credit, despite its high cost, to bring forward big-ticket purchases to avoid tariffs.
- Credit cards supported spending growth by 0.2pp in Q4; expect a similar boost in Q1, then a hefty drag.
- Business investment probably will continue to stagnate over the next few quarters.
Samuel TombsUS
Q4 leap in home sales in unlikely to last.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Business confidence is net unchanged since before the election, while consumers are more downbeat.
- PMI data signal strong growth in January payrolls, but other indicators point to renewed weakness.
- We doubt Mr Trump can engineer a both boom in oil output and much lower rates in the short term.
Samuel TombsUS
RISING UNEMPLOYMENT TO SPUR FURTHER FED EASING…
- …INFLATION WILL STILL FALL UNDER MOST TARIFF SCENARIOS
Samuel TombsUS
- Ignore the Q4 plunge in the BLS new tenant rent index; it is usually revised up sharply...
- …CPI housing inflation still looks set to slow this year, contributing to a fall in overall core inflation.
- California wildfires lifted initial claims last week, but the pick-up in continuing claims has deeper roots.
Samuel TombsUS
- The federal hiring freeze likely will reduce monthly payroll growth by about 15K from February to April.
- Federal jobs account for just 2% of total payrolls, making a very big drag on the headline unlikely.
- Measures of economic policy uncertainty have shot up; that’s usually a bad sign for payroll growth too.
Samuel TombsUS
- The tariff outlook is uncertain, but core PCE inflation probably will be lower at the end of 2025 than now.
- The upward impact on prices likely will be mitigated by a diversion in trade flows, among other factors.
- Beware forecasts for January payrolls derived from Homebase data, which are extremely seasonal.
Samuel TombsUS
Manufacturing still looks fragile despite this improvement.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
