4 April 2025 US Monitor Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff shock

• The average effective tariff rate will jump to 22%, from 3%, if Mr. Trump follows through on his plans.
• We now look for a tariff uplift to the core PCE deflator of about 1¼%, half a point more than our prior assumption.
• The outlook for capex and exports is worse too, but fiscal and monetary policy can offset some damage.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, March

Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

3 April 2025 US Monitor Break-even payroll growth likely has stepped down, but only modestly

• Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
• ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
• A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead. 

Samuel TombsUS

1 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth likely slowed in March, but to a better-than-recession pace

• Headline payrolls likely rose about 140K in March, with private payrolls up by roughly 125K.
• Ignore the upbeat NFIB survey; Conference Board, Indeed and regional Fed data point to a slowdown.
• Continuing claims data point to a stable unemployment rate, but WARN filings point to a rise ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US