Pantheon Macroeconomics

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US Publications

Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, March

Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

3 April 2025 US Monitor Break-even payroll growth likely has stepped down, but only modestly

  • Border Patrol encounters have fallen to zero, but unauthorized immigration likely will rebound soon.
  • ICE arrests have risen only slightly; the hit to labor force growth so far is modest.
  • A shrinking wage growth premium for job switchers suggests lower core services inflation ahead. 

Samuel TombsUS

1 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth likely slowed in March, but to a better-than-recession pace

  • Headline payrolls likely rose about 140K in March, with private payrolls up by roughly 125K.
  • Ignore the upbeat NFIB survey; Conference Board, Indeed and regional Fed data point to a slowdown.
  • Continuing claims data point to a stable unemployment rate, but WARN filings point to a rise ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

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U.S. Document Vault, independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,