PM Datanote: US Employment, July 2025

Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.

4 August 2025 US Monitor Dire July employment report makes a September easing far more likely

• Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
• Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
• The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, June 2025

Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, June

Going nowhere fast.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q2

Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.

1 August 2025 US Monitor Consumers' spending to stagnate as real incomes flatline

• The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
• Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
• We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.