US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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A further climb in goods inflation is still in the pipeline.
Revisions reveal a sharp slowdown; September easing incoming.
- Meager job gains in July and huge downward revisions leave payrolls looking far weaker than before.
- Private payrolls ex-healthcare fell by 16K per month on average in the three months to July.
- The stable unemployment rate reflects young people deferring active job search; hidden slack is mounting.
Core inflation set to climb further as spending barely grows.
Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024.
- The meager growth in consumers’ spending in the first half of this year probably will continue in the second.
- Modest gains in nominal incomes will struggle to keep up with the post-tariff jump in consumer prices.
- We see core PCE inflation hitting 3¼% by year-end, but expect the Fed to prioritize the softening labor market.
- Markets cut September easing odds to 50% after Mr. Powell spoke, but labor market data will force the issue.
- 3% headline GDP growth mostly reflects the distortions that depressed growth in Q1 unwinding.
- Underlying growth has slowed sharply since late 2024, and looks set to remain relatively weak.
- Job openings are trending down and people say new jobs are harder to find; expect subpar July payrolls.
- The fall in demand for more labor has been led by non-retail services; tariff certainty won't help much.
- Q2 GDP likely rose at a 3% pace—cue White House bragging—but the trend is likely just half that rate.
- We look for a 75K rise in July payrolls; key surveys are weak and federal job cuts likely increased.
- A rebound in the unemployment rate looks likely, given the sustained rise in continuing claims.
- The 15% tariff on EU imports includes most previously exempt goods, so the overall AETR has risen to 17%.
Underlying investment looks stagnant at best.
- We think headline GDP leapt by around 3% in Q2 overall, but underlying growth was much weaker…
- …Look for a tepid 1½% gain consumers’ spending and a drop of about 2½% in fixed investment…
- …But measurement issues likely meant a huge contribution from net trade was only partly offset elsewhere.
Bounce in the PMI looks too good to be true.
Auto shutdowns distort the picture; labor market likely still loosening.
Weak demand and recovering supply are putting pressure on prices.
- Recent completed and rumoured trade “deals” mean August 1 looks like less of a tariff cliff-edge.
- But these agreements imply little change in the overall average effective tariff rate on US imports.
- The weakness in new home sales in June probably is here to stay, weighing further on housing starts.
- We expect a partial recovery in the dollar as the President rows back some of his wilder tariff threats…
- …But the sharp dollar decline this year so far will add, at the margin, to the upward pressure on inflation.
- Continued uncertainty around trade policy probably will prevent a meaningful dollar boost to exports.
- Housing inflation will fall much further over the rest of this year, lagging the real-time rent data…
- …Lower housing inflation will offset about a quarter of the remaining uplift from tariff pass-through.
- It's in no one's interest for the administration to seek to oust Fed Chair Powell.
- BLS data suggesting the foreign-born workforce is already rapidly shrinking look implausible.
- Sector-level payrolls in California and Texas suggest most undocumented workers remain in their jobs.
- A bird’s eye view of employment growth in the other 48 states and DC tells a similar story.
CONSUMERS’ SPENDING IS SLOWING...
- ...WEAKER PAYROLLS IN Q3 WILL EXERT FURTHER PRESSURE
