US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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- Job openings are still trending down; catch-up growth in healthcare hiring is fizzling out.
- JOLTS net hiring in December was more muted than payroll growth; January jobs will probably disappoint.
- Auto sales likely were hit by bad weather in January: pre-tariff purchases probably have further left to run.
Samuel TombsUS
Pre-tariff upturn probably will be fleeting.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- We look for a 125K increase in January payrolls, well below the 170K consensus.
- Survey indicators present an incoherent picture, but unusually cold weather likely hit employment.
- The small fall in continuing claims points to a stable unemployment rate, but the risks are to the upside.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Samuel TombsUS
A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The case for softer services inflation remains intact.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The tariffs imposed by Mr. Trump will lift consumer prices by 0.6%, if they are maintained.
- Recent strong growth in consumption can be largely attributed to preemptive purchases of imports.
- A sub-4% saving rate is unsustainable; expect sub-2% GDP growth soon, as consumption growth slows.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariff front-running prompts a surge in consumption; capex hit by Boeing strike.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Continuing claims consistent with flat unemployment in January.
Samuel TombsUS
Net trade and inventories likely dragged heavily on Q4 GDP growth.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
