US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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GROWTH IN SPENDING & PAYROLLS TO SLOW MID-YEAR…
- …FALLING SERVICES INFLATION TO OFFSET THE TARIFF BOOST
Samuel TombsUS
- The core CPI-PCE inflation gap likely increased to 0.7pp in January; the relatively big gap will last.
- Tariffs and rising auto insurance premiums will boost the CPI more than the PCE deflator.
- Existing home sales probably dropped in January, marking the start of a sharp fall in Q1 overall.
Samuel TombsUS
Encouraging, but far from definitive.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Average temperatures and snow cover were in line with seasonal norms last week, unlike in January.
- Homebase data point to weak February payrolls, but they have become a poor guide; wait for better data.
- Expect a low claims print today, but this week’s bad weather and DOGE job cuts will boost claims soon.
Samuel TombsUS
- An exceptionally cold January likely weighed heavily on housing starts and building permits last month...
- ...but the underlying trend in residential construction activity seems to be softening too.
- CPI food inflation is set to rise further, even if the President decides against substantial new tariffs.
Samuel TombsUS
- Adverse weather likely explains only part of the steep drop in retail sales in January.
- The rush of spending on durable goods in anticipation of new tariffs already is showing signs of fading.
- …That sets the stage for much slower growth in consumers’ spending in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
The pre-tariff sales boom already is fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Manufacturing output held back by adverse weather; surveys point to a brief growth spurt ahead.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Low claims highlight lack of near-term pressure for Fed easing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Disinflation still on track; consistent with 2.6% core PCE inflation, down 0.2pp from December.
Samuel TombsUS
Seasonals still failing to offset new year price rises; February data will reassure the FOMC.
Samuel TombsUS
- PPI and CPI data signal a 0.28% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator and a 0.2pp fall in the inflation rate.
- Inflation likely will be close to 2% by year-end absent more tariffs; labor cost pressures are still easing.
- We look for a sharp fall in manufacturing output in January, driven by adverse weather.
Samuel TombsUS
Post-Trump euphoria already starting to fade.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- Seasonal adjustment has evolved too slowly to offset greater clustering of annual price rises in January.
- Underlying services inflation continues to fall; leading indicators point to further progress.
- Surges in CPI auto insurance and hospital services prices will not feed through to the core PCE deflator.
Samuel TombsUS
- Headline retail sales were probably held back by a plunge in auto sales linked to supply-bottlenecks...
- ...but underlying sales likely were strong again, as tariff threats encouraged pre-emptive purchases.
- Mr. Powell's Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony was unremarkable, but watch for post-CPI comments today.
Samuel TombsUS
- Manufacturers have hiked prices to game pre-tariff demand, but prices for autos and clothing likely fell.
- Revisions to the seasonals should temper the residual seasonality in the services price data.
- New tariffs on steel and aluminum will have minimal impact on overall inflation.
Samuel TombsUS
Tariffs worries continue to weigh on confidence.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Positive near-term revisions offset the subpar January print; a March easing is off the table.
Samuel TombsUS
- The recent upward inflexion in payroll growth likely will be tempered by revisions...
- ...But January’s numbers likely were depressed by bad weather; expect a better print in February.
- A mid-year slowing in payroll growth still looks likely, but we now look for the FOMC’s next easing in June
Samuel TombsUS
