PM Datanote: US PPI, April

Pointing to a mere 0.12% rise in the core PCE deflator, and margin pressure for distributors.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales/Weekly Jobless Claims

Further weakness probably lies in store.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

19 May 2025 US Monitor April data consistent with consumers bearing nearly all the tariff costs

• April import price data damage the theory that overseas manufacturers will absorb some tariff costs.
• PPI trade services prices—gross margins—usually are revised up; retailers are planning June price hikes.
• Residential construction payrolls are vulnerable to a drop in housing starts; the market is oversupplied.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, April

Tariff shock puts small business under further pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Productivity, Q1

Mismeasurement likely distorting the Q1 numbers; underlying trend solid.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

12 May 2025 US Monitor April CPI set to show inflation had been tamed, before the tariff shock

• We look for a below-consensus 0.2% gain in the April headline CPI; the egg price surge likely unwound…
• …But rising vehicle prices and a partial rebound in hotel room rates likely drove a 0.3% rise in the core CPI.
• It's too soon to see major tariff-related price hikes, and weak demand suggests airline fares stayed lower.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, April

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, April

Headline index steady in April; but a lot of pain lies ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

5 May 2025 US Monitor Uncertainty over tariffs hasn't killed jobs yet, but their imposition will hurt

• Tariff uncertainty supported payrolls in April, by temporarily boosting the logistics and retail sectors...
• ...But hiring intentions have weakened and a sharp decline in activity in the logistics sector is in train.
• We’re pushing back our forecast for Fed easing to July, from June, but we still expect 75bp this year.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, April

Households stunned by the tariff shock.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, March

Trade and inventories data leave a negative Q1 GDP print looking far more likely.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending / Pending Home Sales

Growth in services spending has slowed only modestly, but a sharper decline lies ahead.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q1

Tariffs distort the numbers, but underlying growth was already slowing in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ECI / ADP Employment

The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ECI / ADP Employment

The downshift in labor cost inflation will resume, soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, March

The post-election pick-up in labor demand has fully unwound.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, March

Equipment investment set to slump after a solid Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, March

 Sales likely to flatline at best from here.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, April 19

No preemptive layoffs by tariff-afflicted firms, but cuts are likely when sales struggle.

Samuel TombsUS

28 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll Payroll growth is unlikely to have slowed decisively as soon as April

• We look for a 150K increase in April payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 4.2%…
• …Job postings, initial claims and the employment indexes of business surveys were little changed.
• A calendar quirk will depress April average hourly earnings, but the trend is slowing.

Samuel TombsUS