PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, May

Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US JOLTS, April

Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.

Samuel TombsUS

9 June 2025 US Monitor Mr. Trump is right; the labor market will need substantial Fed easing soon

• Moderate payroll growth in May offers little reassurance, due to the re-emerging pattern of downward revisions.
• Hiring intentions indicators point to payroll growth slowing to about 75K in Q3; federal job cuts will continue.
• The trend of slowing payroll growth will be startling by the FOMC’s September meeting, compelling easing.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, May

We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, May

More noise than signal.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, May

Manufacturing remains under pressure.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 24

Cracks starting to show in the labor market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, April

Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending, April

Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

2 June 2025 US Monitor Weaker consumers' spending and higher core inflation lie ahead

• Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
• ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
• Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, April

Tariff uncertainty comes for the housing market.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, May

Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, April

Equipment investment is set to fall sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

27 May 2025 US Monitor Labor market weakness will emerge, but not before July's FOMC meeting

• Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
• ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
• Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, May

Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, April

 Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, May 17

 Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Michigan Sentiment Survey, May

 Extremely low response rate and partisan divide raise questions over reliability.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, May

 Pointing to a sharp fall in new home sales & residential construction.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, April

Recent resilience unlikely to last beyond the summer.

Samuel TombsUS