US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Weekly Monitor Datanotes
Economy's momentum looks strong in Q3 but unlikely to last.
Unemployment fears resurge; discretionary spending likely to remain subdued.
- Financial conditions have improved for large firms; the bond refinancing headwind has almost gone...
- ...But the option value of waiting for more information is high; the federal policy outlook is uncertain.
- Small businesses still face tight credit conditions; FDI is costlier; and profits are now being squeezed.
The puzzle of retailers’ margins has just been revised away.
- A 25bp easing this week is highly likely, but the vote probably will be split three ways.
- Committee members are still divided on whether rising inflation or unemployment is the bigger risk...
- ...That discord will rule out clear guidance on future easing, though markets will still price-in a big shift.
Surge driven by Texas; the trend is still gently upward sloping.
Tariffs continuing to lift goods prices; pass-through only one-third complete.
Labor demand and capex plans still depressed.
- Payrolls lack momentum, but the first estimate for August jobs typically is revised upwards.
- Labor market slack is building, but less quickly than a year ago, when the FOMC eased by 50bp.
- The upcoming easing cycle, however, will be prolonged; we still look for 150bp cut by mid-2026.
Jump in new orders obscured underlying weakness.
- Near-real time data imply July’s 0.3% increase in real spending was followed by another solid rise in August...
- ...But spending has been stimulated by further tariff fears; real after-tax income growth is slowing.
- Households have exhausted their excess savings and a strong positive wealth effect is no longer in play.
Further falls in prices likely needed to get sales moving again.
Jump in underlying orders looks unsustainable.
Bigger falls in sales likely lie ahead.
A September easing looks nailed on, with more likely to follow.
- Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech flags a September easing, with more cuts likely to follow.
- High long-term Treasury yields reflect policy risks rather than the Fed losing its inflation credibility…
- …We think the Trump administration should step back and let the FOMC do its job.
The rebound in growth implied by the PMI looks too good to be true.
Labor market slack is gradually building.
July’s weak employment report means inflation worries look overblown.
July bounce in starts likely noise; underlying trends remain weak.
