US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Datanotes Daily Monitor
Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.
The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.
Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.
Relapsing independently of the snowstorms.
Much weaker GDP growth of about 2% now looks likely in Q4
- The blowout in the trade deficit and revisions to the inventories numbers point to 2% GDP growth in Q4...
- ...but final sales to private domestic purchasers likely rose by about 21/2%, in line with previous quarters.
- Core PCE inflation likely undershot the FOMC’s forecast in Q4, mostly due to measurement issues.
Less to the recent upturns than initially meets the eye.
Permits still lower than in early 2025; a further drop beckons.
The outlook for homebuilders remains tough.
- The recent stabilization in building permits probably will be short-lived, given the inventory overhang…
- …Residential construction spending and employment look set to remain under pressure.
- Rising industrial production is mostly due to AI and aircraft demand, not an emerging tariff boost.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
Above trend due to mild weather and a blip in healthcare jobs.
- Payrolls in IT and in sectors where AI has the most potential to replace workers remain essentially flat.
- The employment rate of young people has rebounded since last summer, but low job openings are a worry.
- January’s dip in existing home sales looks like noise; recent heavy snow likely will weigh on February sales.
- Payrolls were lifted by mild weather in early January and an implausible boost from the birth-death model.
- Indicators of underlying labor demand remain subdued, implying February’s print will be much weaker.
- We still look for a 75bp easing of Fed policy in 2026, but have pushed the first cut to June, from March.
Weak underlying sales probably a sign of what's to come.
Probably overstating the labor market’s health.
- December’s soft retail sales point to a slowdown in growth in consumers’ spending in Q4.
- Meager income gains, subdued confidence and low saving imply spending growth will slow further in ‘26.
- Capex intentions remain extremely weak, despite the easing of Fed policy.
- We look for a 0.6% rise in December headline retail sales, underpinned by solid auto and control sales...
- That’s consistent with consumers’ spending rising by just over 3% in Q4...
- ...But soft income growth, depressed confidence and a rock-bottom saving rate point to weakness ahead.
