US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor
Core goods inflation unlikely to surge
Stronger sales reflect one-time boosts, underlying trend probably still weak
No sign of the labor market turning a corner.
- March payrolls will rebound after February’s drop, but a sustained strengthening is not in the cards.
- The end of a major strike will add 32K to March jobs, but recent support from mild weather is over.
- Claims data suggest the unemployment rate was stable in March, but the risks are to the upside.
Energy shock adding to the headwinds for growth and employment.
- The 1990 oil shock was key to the ensuing recession; the FOMC eventually eased despite 6% inflation.
- The economy is less oil intensive and firms’ balance sheets are more robust now; a recession is unlikely...
- ...But this FOMC has been very responsive to labor market weakness; we still expect easing by year-end.
Little to cheer for homebuilders.
Underlying manufacturing output still looks anemic.
- January was the fifth straight month of sub-0.3% gains in real consumption; the worst since 2012.
- Oil prices will squeeze real incomes by 11/4% if they are sustained at $100, or 1/2% if they follow futures.
- Households lack the balance sheet strength to brush this aside; spending will grow only modestly.
The underlying trend in core sales still is slowing.
- Only part of the drop in February payrolls was due to strikes and the birth-death model.
- The trend in first estimates of payrolls is only about 25K, implying falling employment after revisions.
- Drivers soon will be paying $4.00 per gallon for gas, squeezing real disposable income and hitting jobs.
Encouraging signs, but an unreliable guide to the hard data.
Encouraging signs, but big headwinds remain.
- The personal saving rate can be heavily revised, but we think most of the recent fall is genuine.
- The low saving rate and soft growth in incomes will restrain growth in consumers’ spending.
- PPI data suggest retailers’ margins have normalized, pointing to slowing core goods inflation ahead.
Still pointing to a weaker labor market, but big recent revisions raise questions.
Pointing to a slowdown in underlying GDP growth in Q1.
The latest sales data are near worthless; homebuilders are still under pressure.
Underlying growth still solid in Q4, but likely to wane.
