18 May 2026 US Monitor Will "supercore" inflation ever return to target-consistent levels?

• Supercore inflation averaged 2.1% in the 2010s, but failed to fall below 3% in 2025, and has risen this year.
• Unit labor cost growth for services firms is still 0.5pp above its 2010s average, but is now slowing sharply.
• Fiscal support to households has bolstered services firms’ margins, but other supports will linger.

PM Datanote: US CPI, April 2026

Boosted by several one-time jumps; momentum to fade this summer.

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Survey, April 2026

Still painting a subdued picture of the main street economy.

PM Datanote: US Existing Home Sales, April 2026

Stagnant, with no positive catalyst immediately in sight.

PM Datanote: US Michigan Consumer Survey, May 2026

The recent resilience in consumers’ spending probably is on borrowed time.

PM Datanote: US Employment, April 2026

A mixed bag; hiring indicators suggest a long wait for a substantial improvement.

PM Datanote: US Productivity & Unit Labor Costs / Weekly Jobless Claims

Strong productivity growth is restraining unit labor costs.

11 May 2026 US Monitor Hiring plans too weak for recent payrolls momentum to be sustained

• Payrolls have been flattered by the weather and a temporary burst of activity in the goods sector.
• Most indicators of hiring intentions and expected wage growth have weakened in recent months.
• The FOMC will be more worried about the labor market than inflation by the end of this year.

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, April 2026

Too unreliable to bank on a labor market upturn.

PM Datanote: US JOLTS / ISM Services Survey

Labor demand still trending down, implying March payrolls jump was just a blip.

PM Datanote: US New Home Sales, February/March 2026

Soft sales and high inventory point to price cuts and a drop in housing starts.

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, April 2026

Prices index likely sending a false alarm.

PM Datanote: US Advance GDP, Q1

Growth outside of the tech sector already was anemic ahead of the energy shock.

PM Datanote: US Income and Spending / ECI / claims

Spending temporarily supported by tax refunds; stagnation likely in Q2.

PM Datanote: US Housing Starts, February/March 2026

Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.

PM Datanote: US Advance Economic Indicators, March 2026

Q1 GDP now on track for sub-2% growth.

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, April 2026

Spending growth probably still slowing, labor market still weak.

PM Datanote: US S&P Global Composite PMI, April 2026

Core services inflation unlikely to accelerate sharply.

27 April 2026 US Monitor Higher gas prices will soon hurt more, as flow of tax refunds fades

• Tax refunds have more than offset the hit from higher gas prices, so far, but this support will fade shortly.
• The BEA’s impartiality faces scrutiny this week when it chooses the PCE deflator input for legal services.
• Tariff costs are down and refund applications are now going in; retailers can hold back raising prices.

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, March 2026

Returning to last year’s average; a further recovery looks unlikely.