US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Datanotes Weekly Monitor Global
- Improving aggregate household balance sheets last year masked a big rise in loan delinquencies.
- More people will miss loan payments as unemployment increases and student loan payments jump.
- The sharp fall in stock prices likely will weigh on the March flash estimate of the S&P composite PMI.
Samuel TombsUS
- The economy has never dodged recession in the last 45 years with unemployment expectations so high…
- …But WARN data, Indeed job postings and hiring intentions have deteriorated less dramatically.
- Consumers think tariffs will boost inflation by about 2pp; the reality won’t be that bad.
Samuel TombsUS
A snapshot of a prior age, before the shift in federal government policies undermined confidence.
Samuel TombsUS
- February payroll growth was in line with the trend; the downward skew in revisions has ceased…
- …But the jump in economic policy uncertainty is starting to weigh on hiring and firing decisions.
- Federal worker layoffs and fading catch-up growth in healthcare jobs will aggravate the slowdown.
Samuel TombsUS
Challenger data point to a big rise in claims this spring.
Samuel TombsUS
Providing some reassurance on service sector activity.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Why use a broken compass when you have GPS?
Samuel TombsUS
Still set for decent spending growth in Q1 overall, but a slowdown looms further ahead.
Samuel TombsUS
Manufacturing recovery already showing signs of fading.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Net trade set to drag heavily on growth amid a pre-tariff surge in imports.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- January’s fall in consumption was due to residual seasonality, bad weather and auto-specific issues.
- A February rebound is signalled by timely data on auto sales, consumer lending and restaurant visits.
- A mid-year lull in spending, as real income growth slows, is more likely than a sudden stop in Q1.
Samuel TombsUS
Heavy snowfall mostly to blame for the rise.
Samuel TombsUS
Stronger growth in underlying orders unlikely to last much longer.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Sales still struggling for momentum.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
Finally smelling the coffee.
Samuel TombsUS
Decision-making on hold until the federal policy outlook becomes clearer.
Samuel TombsUS
DOGE layoffs not a big issue for claims just yet.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- The S&P PMI points to growth in final sales to private domestic purchasers slowing to just 2% in Q1.
- The PMI was too gloomy during the first trade war, but tariff and federal spending risks are bigger now.
- Tariff threats also are driving consumers’ confidence lower and inflation expectations higher.
Samuel TombsUS
Waiting for more disinflation progress to ease again.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
