PM Datanote: US NAHB Housing Market Index, April

Further signs of uncertainty weighing on housing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Industrial Production, March

Pre-tariff jump in manufacturing output likely to reverse sharply.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Retail Sales, March

Real consumption likely grew by about 1% in Q1.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

21 April 2025 US Monitor Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker

• Timely data suggest consumers’ spending has held up well in the immediate aftermath of April 2.
• Few obvious tariff-induced cracks have yet appeared in the labor market either.
• But the latest regional Fed manufacturing surveys point to a slump in orders and much higher prices.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Empire State Manufacturing Survey, April

A slump in manufacturing activity and surge in goods inflation lies ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

14 April 2025 US Monitor Consumers are shell-shocked, but spending indicators remain mixed

• People are the most downbeat about the outlook for 45 years and are very worried about losing their job.
• Timely spending and borrowing data, however, continue to run above levels consistent with recession.
• Tariff-related inflation will be milder than people fear; Fed policy easing will shore up sentiment too.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US CPI, March

Tariffs will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Weekly Jobless Claims, April 5

A much bigger rise in claims lies ahead.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey, March

Confidence crumbling even before "Liberation Day".

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Employment, March

Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ISM Services Survey, March

Weak, but far from definitive.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

7 April 2025 US Monitor Payroll growth will slow, but it's too strong for the Fed to ease in May

• The stock price drawdown is historically consistent with a 1% fall in payrolls, but slow gains are more likely.
• Most services firms have little exposure to tariffs; leading indicators of hiring are weak, not on the floor.
• The healthcare sector will remain a jobs juggernaut; falling manufacturing payrolls will drag modestly.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US ADP Employment, March

ADP distracts more than it informs.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US ISM Manufacturing Survey, March

Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Personal Incomes & Spending, February

Clear signs of an underlying consumer slowdown.

Samuel TombsUS

31 March 2025 US Monitor Tariffs will be too small to drive a sustained downturn in consumption

• GDP looks set to grow at a mere 1% pace in Q1, following February’s weak consumption data.
• Fading pre-tariff frontrunning, however, explains the slowdown; core services spending is still rising.
• Tariffs will weigh on real income growth by less than 1%; recession remains unlikely.

Samuel TombsUS

PM Datanote: US Pending Home Sales, February

 Sales likely to remain in the doldrums.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Advance Goods Trade, February

 Gold trade and pre-tariff stockpiling are distorting the numbers.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Durable Goods Orders, February

 Equipment investment likely to remain anemic at best.

Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US

PM Datanote: US Consumer Confidence, March

Reeling from the tariff threats.

Samuel TombsUS