US Publications
Below is a list of our US Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Datanotes Weekly Monitor
- We look for a below-consensus drop in May retail sales of about 1%, driven by autos and other durables.
- Spending elsewhere seems to be holding up relatively well for now, but that will change as prices start to rise.
- Real incomes likely will stagnate in Q3; households no longer have the means to fuel strong spending growth.
Still waiting for the tariffs to hit.
Tariff pressures remain muted, for now.
Sentiment up from the April lows, but small businesses remain under pressure.
Rise in openings irreconcilable with other evidence.
- Moderate payroll growth in May offers little reassurance, due to the re-emerging pattern of downward revisions.
- Hiring intentions indicators point to payroll growth slowing to about 75K in Q3; federal job cuts will continue.
- The trend of slowing payroll growth will be startling by the FOMC’s September meeting, compelling easing.
We doubt services inflation will reaccelerate sharply.
Manufacturing remains under pressure.
Cracks starting to show in the labor market.
Net trade and inventories on course for a big combined boost to headline GDP in Q2.
Consumption still resilient, but a slowdown looms.
- Consumers’ spending is on track for respectable growth in Q2, but a sharper slowdown looms...
- ...As tariff-induced prices increases push up core PCE inflation, weighing on real incomes.
- Tariff-related distortions to the trade and inventories likely will artificially boost Q2 GDP growth.
Tariff uncertainty comes for the housing market.
Consumers breathe a sigh of relief, but the labor market still is softening.
Equipment investment is set to fall sharply.
- Payrolls in the retail, wholesale and goods transportation sectors have leapt by 200K since November...
- ...These gains will unwind as goods demand slumps, but probably after July FOMC meeting.
- Tariffs of 50% on EU imports would boost the core PCE deflator by 0.5% and hit GDP by around 1%.
Economy robust in the face of tariff uncertainty for now.
Still impeded by high mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty.
Little changed from previous weeks, but weak hiring indicators point to a deterioration soon.
